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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 120955
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
555 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to push through and offshore this
morning. Winds will shift to west and remaining breezy today
and Saturday behind cold front. A considerable warming trend is
expected Sunday into early next week with high pressure building
in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Latest analysis shows strong low pressure lifting into the
Great Lakes this morning with attendant cold front moving
through the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Cold front will continue
to push through the forecast area and offshore this morning.
Latest radar imagery shows sct showers and iso tstms ongoing
this morning along and ahead of the front, with greatest
coverage over central VA. Showers will continue to diminish over
the next few hours with drier air working in behind the front.
Upper trough and shortwave will move through later today and
this evening which could allow sct showers to re-develop. Given
steep lapse rates, enough instability aloft will be present for
locally strong wind gusts and perhaps some graupel. A few tstms
are also possible. The cooler air aloft will allow for a well-
mixed environment with breezy conditions through the day. A WSW
wind of 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph across the area are
expected. Highs today in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Strong upper trough and shortwave will
continue to swing through tonight, with could lead to sct
showers and iso tstms this evening. Showers quickly taper off
late evening with the loss of heating however, conditions will
remain breezy. Much cooler tonight with lows falling into the
upper 40s and low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Very mild weather is expected through the week with highs in
the 80s each day.

Mostly sunny, dry, and breezy Saturday with a W wind of 15-25
mph with gusts to 30-35 mph again expected. Highs Saturday in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A warming trend (potentially substantial) commences Sunday
through late next week as an upper ridge over the central CONUS
builds E. There is good model consensus for 850mb temperatures
of 12-14C by Sunday, which may drop down slightly by Monday as a
trough swings by well to our N, before rising back to 14- 16C
by Tuesday/Wednesday. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80F Sun
(apart from low-mid 70s across the Eastern Shore). Highs
increase to the low-mid 80s Mon-Wed with mid-upper 80s possible
by Thu. Lows will be chilly Sat night in the mid 40s for most
(lower 40s across rural portions of the FA and around 50F along
the coast). Otherwise, lows in the 50s to lower 60s each night
in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Mix of VFR and MVFR conditions ongoing
across the terminals this morning. Expect conditions to grad
improve towards daybreak, returning to VFR near or shortly after
12z. Though there is still potential for brief period of IFR
through 12z this morning, with best chances at SBY. Sct showers
and iso tstms continue this morning, mainly over central VA and
eastern shore. Expect shower coverage to diminish in the next
few hours, with iso to sct showers possibly re-developing late
this afternoon and early evening. Winds beginning to relax a
bit, with SSW 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Breezy SW-W winds
will continue today with gusts 20-30 kt. Dry and VFR Saturday
through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 AM EDT Friday...

Latest obs shows S-SW winds 20-30 kt with gusts 25-35 kt and
seas 6-12 ft. Front will continue to push through the waters
this morning and offshore today. Winds will diminish slightly
but remain gusty through the period. SCAs continue for the
waters. Deep mixing is expected over land areas this aftn with
gusts to 30 kt at land/water interfaces and over the tidal
rivers. Seas slowly subside with the offshore winds and seas
becoming 5-7 ft. A secondary front crosses the waters Fri this
evening. Another surge in winds is expected along and behind
this front, with winds becoming W 20-25 kt (with gusts to around
30 kt) into early Sat afternoon. A similar setup s to Fri
afternoon is expected Sat afternoon with the gustiest winds over
the tidal rivers.

Sub-SCA winds return Saturday night through most of Sunday as
high pressure situates over the southeast CONUS. A much more
benign sea state is also expected with seas dropping off to 2-3
ft (1-2 ft waves). SW winds may then briefly increase again to
near SCA thresholds Sun night into Mon morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 555 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages/Headline Summary:

A significant southerly surge has allowed tidal anomalies to
rise to 2-2.5 ft above normal in the mid/upper bay, and water
levels are cresting above moderate flood stage along the bay
side of the MD Eastern Shore (likely will fall short of major at
Cambridge...and levels have already started to fall at Crisfield
and Bishops Head). Coastal Flood Warnings continue with the
potential of ~2 ft of inundation here.

The Coastal Flood Warning has been replaced with an advisory (in
effect until 12 PM) for areas adjacent to the northern
Albemarle Sound and Back Bay area of VA Beach. Water levels
exceeded moderate flood stage at Elizabeth City and along Back
Bay in VA Beach earlier this morning but have since fallen below
moderate. The remaining Coastal Flood Advisories elsewhere will
expire this morning. No additional tidal flooding is expected
after today.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for MDZ021>023.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ024.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ015>017-032-
     102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for
     VAZ075>078-085-099-521-522.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for VAZ098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...MHX
SHORT TERM...MHX
LONG TERM...MHX
AVIATION...MHX
MARINE...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ