Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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313 FXUS64 KAMA 061928 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 228 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 A strong upper level low is forecast to traverse east and adjacent to our region through the day. A strong gradient is setup around the upper low with a positive tilt, and at the surface a dryline is attempting to form and is expected to mix east throughout the day. Additionally, areas behind said dryline will be at risk for critical fire weather. Tomorrow, a strong pressure gradient is still in place for the area behind the main upper trough. Critical fire weather will be possible again for the western Panhandles. Today`s setup for severe thunderstorms in our area has seen some fluctuation overtime, but in recent hours today it has seen a bit of devolution. Subsidence is building in at the midlevels and is not allowing a true dryline to form. Over the pass few hours, at the time of this writing, we have seen cumulus try to pulse up but they have been flattening out thanks to dry air entrainment. We still cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm in the far eastern Texas Panhandle this afternoon, as a second upper level wave is expected to move through. The storm mode at this point favors a linear regime, given how winds and the surface and at the midlevels are nearly parallel to the main upper trough. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado could occur within a brief hour window before it quickly moves east into western Oklahoma. Meanwhile, critical fire weather conditions are in place for the western half of the combined Panhandles. Strong surface winds and very low RH values are driving the risk today. Tomorrow, critical fire weather conditions are expected again in the much of the same area that is under the risk today. Minimum RH values will still be below 10% for the west, but winds at the surface are actually forecast to be lower than what we are experiencing today. Even still, conditions will be met to see RFTI values approach 7. High temperatures will still be in the 80`s before decreasing behind a frontal boundary on Wednesday. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The long term forecast period will start off dry across the Panhandles. A front will come through to start the forecast period and bring high temperatures on Wednesday from near average to below average for Thursday and Friday. Latest 06/12Z model and numerical guidance suggests rain chances returning associated with our next system moving southeast out of the central Rockies. NBM POPs up to around 30% from second half of Saturday through Sunday is suffice at this time and will be further analyzed as more data comes in with time. High temperatures over the coming weekend will remain near average for early May. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through this period. The main concerns will come from strong winds this afternoon, and low level wind shear tonight at all sites. Winds will stay southwesterly and slowly veer straight west through the day. Winds at AMA should stay below 40 kts this afternoon, but if they over perform an AWW may be needed. Winds at the surface will eventually die down some overnight, but some speed shear aloft may be present. By tomorrow afternoon, breezy to strong winds will resume at all sites. Rangel && .FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather conditions are very likely today for the central and western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Breezy to gusty west winds are forecast for this afternoon with gusts up to 40 to 45 mph. Relative humidity values will drop down into the single digits today, with the lowest RH values around 7 percent. These conditions combined with continued dry grasses will lead to critical fire weather conditions and RFTI values between 5 to 9. A Red Flag Warning is in affect for this afternoon through early this evening. Critical fire weather conditions will likely occur again on Tuesday for the central and western Panhandles. Relative humidity recovery on Monday night will be very poor with forecast maximum RH values around 25 to 35 percent on Tuesday morning. West winds, albeit a bit weaker, on Tuesday are likely with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. Minimum RH values by Tuesday afternoon will once again drop down to around 7 percent. These conditions will lead to RFTI values in the 4 to 8 range on Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the central and west given these conditions for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 48 83 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 48 86 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 41 81 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 51 88 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 44 86 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 46 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 53 84 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 40 82 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 46 85 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 46 84 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 51 85 50 78 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 50 84 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 52 84 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 52 85 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006- 007-011-012-016-017-317. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317. OK...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...55