812
FXUS64 KAMA 271913
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
213 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

As of this writing there is a mid to upper level low centered over
the Four Corners Region. The associated trough can also be seen
on GOES water vapor imagery bringing southwest flow aloft and
thunderstorms on the leading edge of this trough. Some
thunderstorms were present this morning in the southeastern TX
Panhandle, with the activity now shifted further east in western
OK. Looking as surface observations the the current dryline is
still trying to hang on to the TX/OK state line in the eastern
Panhandles. Dozier currently has a dewpoint of 57, however, the
winds have shifted more southwesterly while Childress has
southerly winds and a Td of 67. Wellington also has WSW winds with
a Td still around 64. Will have to keep an eye on this far
southeastern TX Panhandle around Collingsworth County for
additional thunderstorm development if this dryline hangs on or
retreats after a mixing east slightly. Thunderstorms may have the
potential to be severe, however, the tornado threat should be
further east out in front of the dryline.

The aforementioned upper level trough is in fact taking on a more
negative tilt with higher winds aloft being pushed further to the
east. This may keep some of the higher winds previously though to
occur across the west from mixing and limiting the max wind gusts
for areas in the Red Flag Warning today. Also, a surface front has
entered the far northwestern corner of Cimarron County. This front
is supposed to move into the area tonight, and should have
relatively light winds behind it. As the H5 low moves into eastern
CO tonight model guidance suggests additional PVA coming across
the central Panhandles, with CAMs suggesting showers between 11PM
and 3 AM Sunday. However, if you look at forecast soundings there
is quite the dewpoint depression at the surface, suggesting virga
showers and potential wind gusts with the dry conditions at the
surface. Only expecting sprinkles with maybe a few areas possibly
measuring a hundredth or two if the cold front can help close that
inverted V a bit.

Tomorrow, thanks to the front tonight, the northwestern combined
Panhandles may only see highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70
with the southeastern combined Panhandles in the mid 70s to
possibly 80 in Wellington. Winds are expected to be out of the
north to northwest around 10 to 15 mph tomorrow becoming light,
less than 10, going into the evening. As the center of the main H5
low is expected to be well up into NE/SD tomorrow evening, a
shortwave may enter the far northwestern combined Panhandles
introducing some light showers. Again, these showers may not be
very productive as there may still be a decent T/Td depression at
the surface. Other than that lows generally in the 40s expected
tomorrow night with winds still north to easterly around 5 to 10
mph.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The warm up commences on Monday and continues through Wednesday.
Upper level heights increase behind our weekend storm and the flow
becomes more zonal for Monday and Tuesday and then starts to become
more southwest on Wednesday. The forecast will also remain dry for
Monday and Tuesday.  By Wednesday, a dryline sets up in the eastern
Panhandles and an upper level disturbance moves across to help
produce showers and thunderstorms in this area through Wednesday
night.  A cold front moves through the Panhandles early on Thursday
as an upper level short wave moves across the northern Rockies onto
the northern Plains.  Upslope flow along with other weak disturbances
moving through the flow may keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms going through Friday. However, the models do not agree
on the timing or the strength of the northern stream system for
Thursday and Friday, so the timing of any rain and the timing of
the cold front will likely change.

High temperatures are expected to be above normal Monday through
Thursday with the possibility of below normal temperatures on
Friday.  The warmest days are expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday
where many places may be a few degree either side of 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with breezy and gusty
southwest winds (20 to 30 kts gust up to 40 kts possible) through
00Z Sun. After 00Z winds should be light around 10 kts or less
with a weak front bringing north winds closer to and after 06Z. An
upper level system may produce some elevated showers, and with
such dry conditions at the surface these showers may be virga and
could cause some erratic winds between 04Z and 08Z mainly.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  45  74  46 /   0  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  87  46  75  42 /  10  10  10  10
Boise City OK              75  40  68  41 /  10  10  10  20
Borger TX                  87  47  78  48 /   0  10   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              81  42  75  44 /   0  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  80  43  74  46 /   0  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               84  49  76  49 /   0  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 76  38  71  39 /   0  10  10  10
Guymon OK                  82  42  71  42 /  10  10  10  10
Hereford TX                79  42  76  44 /   0  10   0  10
Lipscomb TX                87  48  76  46 /  10  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   84  46  74  47 /   0  10   0  10
Shamrock TX                86  51  78  49 /  20  10   0   0
Wellington TX              86  52  79  49 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>004-
     006>009-011>013-016-017-317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...36