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000
FXUS63 KAPX 110820
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
420 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread soaking rain moves in today, lasting into Friday.

- Strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph possible Friday into Friday
  night.

- Rain chances continue at times into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Strong longwave troughing over the Mississippi Valley will progress
over the southeast CONUS this morning and pivot up the Atlantic
coast into tonight. An impressive coupled jet aloft will provide
strong forcing aloft and quickly deepen the associated cyclone as it
swings north into the Great Lakes today.

Forecast Details:

Rain will spread across northern Michigan from south to north this
morning through this afternoon as the aforementioned system works
into the region. Forecast soundings display abundant moisture
through the profile to support efficient rainfall at times,
especially during the afternoon and evening. Current confidence lies
in a slightly further east track than in past forecast cycles,
resulting in the best chances for areas seeing 1" or more of
rainfall by 12Z Friday coming east of Leelanau/Benzie/Manistee
counties. Rainfall amounts exceeding 1" appear unlikely along the
Lake Michigan shoreline at this time. On the other hand, those along
the Lake Huron shoreline have the highest potential to see amounts
of 1.5" or more by Friday morning. Winds also look to steadily
increase out of the east-northeast through the afternoon, gusting to
25-35 mph at times through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel split flow pattern spanned across North America will
continue to keep chaotic flow and active weather at times for the
Great Lakes Region. Southern branch flow with embedded shortwave
troughing currently over the Ark-La-Tex region quickly progresses to
the midwest while deepening with surface low pressure.

Rain will first commence today but continue to impact the CWA
through the first half of the short term period. Rainfall is set
to continue Friday along with strong gusty winds as a deepening
pressure gradient moves across the CWA. Ridging currently over
the Pacific Northwest will quickly push aformentioned troughing
northward and building high pressure this Saturday.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Additional precipitation will carry into the short term as
deepening surface low pressure tracks through Michigan. QPF will
be lower compared to Thursday as a general quarter inch or less
can be expected. Most impactful weather will be the continued
strong wind gusts. Northwest flow will strengthen gusts to 40-50
mph for most parts of the CWA (especially for locations around
the Michigan and Huron Shorelines of northern lower) through
evening hours of Friday.

Aformentioned midlevel riding over the Pacific Northwest will
move into the Great Lakes region on Saturday and build high
pressure. Weather will remain quiet for the rest of the short
term period but lingering gusty winds (especially east of I-75)
will persist during the daytime as low pressure departs to
Hudson Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Pattern Forecast/Key Messages:

Embedded disturbance riding along aformentioned ridging will
bring slight chances of showers to the Great Lakes region this
Sunday. Little to no measurable amounts are expected due to the
disorganization and lack of moisture associated with it. Weather
remain quiet for the CWA as surface high pressure continues
until another potential system moves into the Midwest as soon as
the Tuesday night/Wednesday timeframe. Too early to message
details on this system, be continuing the monitor rain and
possibly even thunderstorm chances for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Deep low pressure will continue to lift out of the Lower
Mississippi Valley overnight and into the Ohio Valley by
Thursday morning...and will then continue northward into the
Southern and Eastern Great Lakes Thursday afternoon and night.
Widespread rain will develop across most of Michigan along the
northern and western side of this system...impacting our area
mainly Thursday afternoon and night. VFR conditions overnight
will drop to MVFR Thursday afternoon as this widespread rain
shield develops from SE to NW across our area. Mainly
light/variable surface winds overnight will become E/NE on
Thursday and will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory winds and waves are expected to spread across
most northern Lake Michigan and Lake Huron nearshore waters by late
afternoon/early evening, eventually setting in over Whitefish Bay
tonight. Widespread gales are expected by Friday morning across all
nearshore waters and are expected to last into Friday evening over
Lake Michigan and Saturday morning over Lake Huron. Storm force wind
gusts cannot be ruled out at times.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for
     LHZ345>347.
     Gale Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for
     LHZ348-349.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DJC
SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...DJC