274
FXUS64 KBMX 020040
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
740 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024

A very tranquil and warm spring day is upon us over Central
Alabama, with plenty of dry air aloft that will prevent much if
any convective development. We do have some moisture in the very
low levels, with dewpoints observed in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Fair weather cumulus has developed areawide as a result, but
that`s just about it in terms of the weather expected through the
rest of the afternoon. The forecast is currently on track to reach
the mid to upper 80s for highs areawide. Clear and calm conditions
are expected again tonight with mild overnight lows in the 50s and
60s. Patchy fog will be possible along the major river basins and
larger lakes.

Thursday will feel more like summer instead of spring, as highs
are expected to reach close to the 90 degree mark. Also similar
to a summer-like pattern, a few isolated convective showers and
storms will be possible as a low-level boundary pushes
northeastward as southerly flow develops at the surface. Most
locations will remain dry, but we`ll be watching shower and storm
development off to our west as an upper level shortwave trough
moves across the ArkLaMiss by Thursday evening.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 129 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024

No significant changes needed in the forecast Thursday night
through early next week. Only minor adjustments to the
rain/thunderstorm chances over the weekend, but the overall
reasoning described below remains the same.

25/Owen

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2024

West-southwest flow aloft will be in place Thursday night through
Friday night between ridging over the Gulf and East Coast and
troughing over the Plains and Western CONUS. Several shortwaves
will be embedded in this flow emanating from Plains convection. A
subtropical impulse will help initiate an MCS over Texas later
today. While the MCS is expected to dissipate on Thursday before
reaching Alabama due to a dry/stable air mass, its MCV and
increased mid-level moisture along with a weak LLJ should result
in some patches of light rain and showers for at least the
northwest counties Thursday night. Moisture continues to increase
Friday and Friday night with continued weak shortwaves and the
left exit region of a subtropical jet streak nosing in. This
should support scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms
during this period into Saturday morning, highest chances north
where heights will be lower. Bulk shear will be weak so not
expecting anything severe with this activity.

Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen across the Central
CONUS ahead of a deep trough moving into the western CONUS. Rain
chances will decrease, but there will still be some scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity with elevated PWATs combined with
weak shortwaves and daytime heating. Ridging and associated
warm air aloft/capping increases further on Tuesday as a deep
upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should result
in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more common
across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow
strengthens.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2024

TAFs are VFR and should stay that way through the forecast. There
could be some patchy river fog around late tonight, but not
confident enough for a TAF mention at any one site. It looks like
the better low level moisture for fog should stay across S AL
closer to the coast. Otherwise, winds should be light tonight with
SE winds 6-8kts during the day Thu with mixing.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions today with RH values dropping into the 30s.
20 foot winds will be from north around 3-6 mph. Min RHs will be
in the 30s again on Thursday, though isolated showers may develop
during peak heating. Good overnight recoveries are expected each
night. 20 foot winds will be from south around 5-7 mph. Scattered
showers/storms return for Friday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  88  62  83 /   0  10  20  50
Anniston    58  88  64  83 /   0  20  20  30
Birmingham  62  88  66  83 /   0  20  30  40
Tuscaloosa  62  88  66  84 /   0  20  30  50
Calera      61  87  66  83 /   0  20  20  30
Auburn      63  87  66  83 /  10  20  20  20
Montgomery  62  89  65  87 /  20  20  20  20
Troy        62  88  63  87 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....25/Owen/32/Davis
AVIATION...08