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000
FXUS64 KBMX 221957
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
257 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1051 AM CDT MON APR 22 2024

A "chilly" day will be on tap across Central Alabama today, at
least for late April standards that is. Surface high pressure
currently resides off to our west and northwest, with northerly to
northeasterly winds prevailing across the region. Very dry air has
settled in across the atmospheric profile, with a whopping PWAT
of 0.25 inches measured on the 12z KBMX sounding. The dry air
aloft has begun to mix down to the surface as we approach midday
with winds measured a bit higher than previously forecast. We`ll
continue to see winds prevail around 10-15mph this morning with a
few gusts up to 20mph before winds begin to subside late this
afternoon as the surface ridge begins to settle directly
overhead. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to be at
least 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Calm
winds and clear skies will set the stage for ideal radiational
cooling conditions tonight. Looking back at overnight lows,
Haleyville and Gadsden hit the mid 30s, and we can expect similar
temperatures once again tonight but perhaps a degree or so warmer.
We can`t rule out a few isolated patches of frost in those very
sheltered valley locations, but otherwise lows will be in the 40s
areawide.

Temperatures will begin to modify during the day on Tuesday as the
surface ridge becomes centered to our east. Winds will shift out
of the south to southwest by Tuesday afternoon with surface
dewpoints beginning to slowly rise into the mid to upper 40s.
Under full sunshine and southerly flow, temperatures should be
able to rise into the mid and upper 70s across much of the area.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT MON APR 22 2024

Only change in the extended needed this afternoon was to expand
the slight chance of showers and storms to cover the northern half
of the area Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, a dry week with
temperatures warming each day. expect upper 70s to mid 80s
areawide by Friday.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT MON APR 22 2024

A weak front will move into the region Wednesday as a 500 mb
shortwave moves from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Other than an increase in clouds, this front should hardly be
noticeable with only a minor temperature gradient from north to
south across our area. To our west, a weak shortwave in Oklahoma
cresting a ridge may kick off convection Wednesday night near a
warm front and moisture gradient. Weak impulses within west-
northwest flow may reach northwestern Alabama on Thursday along
this same moisture/temperature gradient. This could result in a
few showers across our northwestern quadrant.

After Thursday, a 500 mb ridge is expected to take hold over the
Southeast CONUS and Gulf of Mexico. This should deflect any
shortwaves to our north and west, and subsidence should keep
conditions dry through Sunday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 AM CDT MON APR 22 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.
Northerly to northeasterly surface winds today will prevail
around 10 knots with a few isolated higher gusts between 15 and
20mph. Winds will become calm or variable overnight tonight before
shifting to the south and southwest by Tuesday afternoon.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air is in place through most of the week. RH values will
rebound to near 100 percent tonight, as 20ft winds diminish to
less than 3mph. Tuesday, 20 ft winds become southerly, at 6 to 10
mph, with minimum RH values in the 28 to 35 percent range. A weak
but rainfree front moves through on Wednesday, with 20ft winds
becoming westerly at 6-9mph, with minimum RH values above 35
percent. Rain free conditions continue through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     36  75  48  75 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    40  75  51  76 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  43  75  53  76 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  41  76  52  78 /   0   0   0  10
Calera      42  74  53  76 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      45  75  51  77 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  42  77  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        43  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...56