Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 200546
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Shooting Range RX...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1146 PM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A weather disturbance will move across the area
early this Saturday morning, with a decrease in snow showers.
However, scattered rain and snow showers will still be around into
the afternoon hours with lingering instability and moisture. An
isolated thunderstorm is possible, but the chance of that is only
10 percent. Most precipitation Saturday will be light, but a
heavier shower could bring wetting rain and snow (about a 20-25%
chance of liquid amounts greater than a tenth of an inch). Smoke
dispersal will be very good with sufficient mixing and northwest
flow both surface and aloft.

Drier and warmer weather can be expected for Sunday, with above
normal temperatures and lower humidity. Winds will be lighter, but
sufficient heating and mixing will still occur for another day of
good to very good smoke dispersion.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Snow showers likely until 0300, then
                    snow showers.
CWR.................53 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........100%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 4-12 mph.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL until 0300, then Below 1000 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........100 98  97  95  93  92
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............50  50  50  50  50  50
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  80  80  80
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............29  29  29  29  29  29
RH..............96  96  92  92  92  92
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.13  13  13  13  12  9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  14  12  10
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  12  13  7   9   6
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   P   P   P

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely until 1100,
                    then rain and snow showers likely. Slight chance
of thunderstorms after 1200.
CWR.................25 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........39%.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph until 0900, then
southwest until 1100, then west/northwest 7-13
mph with gusts to around 21 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL until 1100, then 5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 9 mph until 0800, then west
10-15 mph until 1100, then 21-28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then fair until 1100, then
good until 1200, then very good until 1600,
then good.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  85  79  74  74  74  80  80  80  80  80  80
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Chc of pcpn (%).70  70  70  60  60  60  70  70  70  70  70  70
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............29  29  31  36  41  45  47  49  50  51  50  49
RH..............92  96  92  79  65  53  47  44  42  39  39  39
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   7   9   12  13  13  13  13  12
20 FT wind gust.7   7   7   7   12  15  18  21  21  21  21  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.2 1.5 2.1 3.4 4.8 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.0 4.5 4.5
Transp wind dir.S   SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.9   9   10  12  15  21  24  26  28  25  25  24
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8   9   14  21  44  87  117 131 141 110 100 95
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   P   F   G   VG  VG  VG  VG  G   G

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy(60-65%) until 2100, then partly
                    cloudy(30-40%).
CWR.................3 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 26.
Max humidity........78%.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5-12 mph until 2300, then west
                    6-10 mph until 2400, then southwest around 5
                    mph until 0100, then variable up to 5 mph until
                    0500, then west around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......3700 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after
                    2000.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12-21 mph until 2100, then light
                    until 2400, then west 8-11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1900, then poor.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........67  60  54  48  43  39  36  34  31  28  24  20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............48  44  40  37  36  34  32  30  29  28  27  26
RH..............40  45  50  56  59  64  69  73  74  73  75  78
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..12  9   7   5   5   6   5   3   3   3   3   5
20 FT wind gust.18  15  12  7   7   9   7   6   6   6   6   7
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   NW  NW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  W
Transp wind spd.21  15  12  7   7   7   6   7   8   9   10  10
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..66  22  7   3   3   3   2   3   3   4   4   4
SmokeDispersion.G   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P   P

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........25%.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 5 mph until 0700, then northwest
                    6-12 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0700. 6200 ft AGL after
                    1200.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12-21 mph until 1200, then 17-22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then fair until 1000, then
                    good until 1200, then very good until 1600,
                    then good.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........16  12  7   4   4   6   7   9   12  15  16  17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............26  29  33  38  43  48  52  55  56  56  56  56
RH..............76  75  66  57  47  37  30  28  25  25  25  26
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   6   9   10  10  10  10  10  12  12  12  12
20 FT wind gust.6   9   12  14  15  16  16  17  17  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.3 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.8 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.2 5.7 5.2
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  14  15  17  18  21  22  21  21  20  18  17
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5   16  30  47  65  85  107 107 106 105 91  77
SmokeDispersion.P   P   P   F   G   G   VG  VG  VG  VG  G   G

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower 30s.
Highs in the lower 60s. West winds 14-23 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the upper 50s.
West winds 12-18 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Southwest winds 11-15 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Barjenbruch
Requested by...Michael Schultz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410929.3/BOU
.DELDT 04/20/24
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL michael.schultz@usda.gov
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