220
FXUS61 KBUF 010544
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
144 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in with fair and dry weather returning
tonight through at least Friday morning. Meanwhile, temperatures
will remain solidly above normal for the foreseeable future.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
There`s a potential for widely scattered showers east of Lake
Ontario (20% chance) with the passage of a weak secondary frontal
boundary overnight. Otherwise, lots of low level moisture and a
light flow aloft will maintain quite a bit of cloud cover across the
region tonight. There also will be patchy fog both with the low
moisture, and perhaps a bit more dense fog in any areas which clear
out and have radiational fog develop. Lows will be in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

Clearing Wednesday morning...as a progressive mid level
shortwave ridge and associated weak sfc high will cross our
forecast area. The fair dry weather on Wednesday will be
accompanied by max temps that will range from the mid 60s across
the Eastern Lake Ontario region to the low and mid 70s over the
western counties.

A compact shortwave will pass by to our north Wednesday night. This
will drive a moisture starved cold front through our region. While
there will be slgt to low chc pops near and east of Lake Ontario...
the passage will be marked by nothing more than patchy clouds and
subtle wind shift to mark the occasion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The period will start out mostly dry as a ridge builds into the
region from the west on Thursday. There may be a few showers across
the north country as weakening sfc low and trough pass by the area
on Thursday morning. Dry weather is expected through most of Friday
afternoon before an area of showers approaches from the west.

A large occluding sfc low tracking northeast into western Ontario
from the upper Midwest on Friday into Saturday will push a cold
front toward the region late Friday. A new weaker sfc low will
develop over the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and track northeast along
the cold front. Showers will increase from west to east later Friday
into early Saturday as the cold front and secondary sfc low track
toward the area, along with the warm front of the secondary sfc low.
Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible as the warm sector with
the sfc low moves over the region. Still some timing differences
among guidance with slower guidance around 3 to 6 hours slower than
some of the faster guidance. Rainfall through Saturday night should
range from a few hundredths of an inch for the north country to a
few tenths of an inch for far western NY.

Temperatures during the period will warm to well above normal with
highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to low 70s. Fridays high
temperatures will reach at least 15 degrees above normal, warming
into the mid 60s to near 80 for the day. Some uncertainty for
Thursday temperatures as some guidance has come down a bit on maxT`s
across the area, due to slower warm air advection, so made some
adjustments down, but still a warm day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A vertically stack low pressure system located over NW Ontario
Canada will slowly drag a cold through the eastern Great Lakes. Due
to the slow progression of this front, and then a potential
secondary front have kept low end PoPs across much the the forecast
area into Sunday. We should see a fairly widespread area of rain
Saturday move from west to east, which then gives way to chances for
showers into Sunday. Brief surface high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes Sunday night, causing any lingering showers to gradually
deplete from west to east.

Dry weather looks to persist through much of Monday but yet again
another warm frontal boundary will begin to approach from the
southwest. This will introduce a chance of shower either late Monday
night or during the day Tuesday. Still some timing issues to work
out but have once again added chance PoPs reflecting the front
nearing and entering the region.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through
the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some lingering IFR cigs east of Lake Ontario overnight, but
otherwise cigs have lifted or scattered across Western NY.
However, this clearing has allowed radiation fog to develop in the
Genesee Valley, impacting the ROC terminal. Low confidence in
handling this fog which may mix out some with the passage of the
weak frontal boundary, or it may not.

Otherwise, satellite imagery shows an another area of low
moisture and IFR cigs developing across southern Ontario
province and Lake Ontario. This will expand overnight, lowering
cigs and possibly resulting in some fog as well. Fog may be
with the large area of low moisture, or radiation fog.

On Wednesday...IFR to MVFR cigs in the morning will give way to VFR
weather regionwide.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible
thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers otherwise mainly VFR weather.

&&

.MARINE...
A quiet week is expected on the lower Great Lakes as the pressure
gradients remains weak. Winds will generally remain 15 knots or
less.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/EAJ/RSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Apffel/EAJ/RSH
MARINE...Apffel/TMA