316
FXUS62 KCAE 301843
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
243 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A shortwave trough aloft will push through the area Tuesday and
bring scattered showers-storms in the afternoon and evening.
Expect drier, warmer weather for Thursday and Friday with highs
back in the mid to upper 80s. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase for the weekend as low level moisture increases. There
will be at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the long term with above normal temperatures
favored.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough continues to move through the TN
valley this afternoon. WAA ahead of this feature has increased
temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s with dewpoints in the
low 60s due to onshore flow with the surface high sitting offshore.
PWATs are generally between 1" and 1.3" with this highest values
across the CSRA. This feature will translate through the state this
afternoon into this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms
forming amid 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE. A quick look at a few other
parameters reveals strong low-level lapse rates but modest mid-level
lapse rates, and effective bulks shear of 25-35 kts. Therefore, any
severe potential appears limited. The caveat to this is a thin
corridor of 800-900 J/kg of DCAPE extending from the CLT area south
to around SAV, likely due to some mid-level dry air intrusion. That
in mind, storms that develop will have the potential for producing
some gusty winds. CAMS suggest the bulk of the showers and
thunderstorms should diminish by around 01/03z, with most of the CWA
precip-free after about 01/06z. There should then be a period of
clearing late tonight into early Wednesday morning, with guidance
suggesting the development of some patchy fog/stratus. This should
be focused west of Columbia into the Augusta area, since moisture
will be slow to move out as winds diminish in the boundary layer. As
such, another night of mild lows with values in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will build into the Southeast on
Wednesday. Drier air will also move into the area from the west
with PWAT values around 1 inch. Expect isolated to scattered
showers along the coastal plain and into the eastern Midlands
where low level moisture is higher. The severe weather threat is
low given the dry air aloft hindering growth and warmer temps
aloft. A downslope component to the wind fields will help push
temps back above average, in the mid to upper 80s.

As we move into Thursday, broad ridging will deepen across the
SE CONUS and the ridge axis will set up nearly directly
overhead. So while the dry northwest flow will weaken, general
subsidence will continue and skies will remain mostly clear
again Thursday. Thursday`s highs will be in the mid to upper
80s. As surface high pressure strengthens offshore, surface
winds will turn more out of the east in the afternoon and allow
dew points to push back into the 60`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The WPC cluster analysis page shows that most ensemble members
keep broad ridging in place through the long term, however not
as amplified as Thursday and Friday. This will open up the
synoptic pattern to a series of weak shortwaves sliding to our
northwest starting this weekend through the end of the period.
Ensembles generally favor an increase in atmospheric moisture
over the weekend with PWAT values around the 90th percentile.
This pattern of shortwaves riding over broad ridging and above
normal PWATs favor at least a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day of the long term with highest PoPs over
the weekend when atmospheric moisture is expected to be highest.
Thunderstorms in general will be favored during the afternoon
hours but could fall outside the typical diurnal period if
shortwave troughs cross the region outside of peak heating.
Above average temperatures are likely through much of the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions this afternoon with occasional
restrictions due to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

SCT-BKN cumulus with high clouds. CIGs generally remaining VFR, but
with the development of -SHRA/-TSRA, occasional MVFR/IFR
restrictions. Scattered convection develops this afternoon and
moves through the terminals into the evening. Patchy light
showers possible until about 01/06z, then generally dry at the
terminals. Patchy fog possible late tonight if skies clear
enough toward daybreak. Outside of convection, winds around 10
kts into this evening from the south/southwest then speeds
decreasing overnight. Winds Wednesday morning increasing out of
the north/northwest generally remaining less than 8 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions become possible Friday
night into Saturday ahead of a frontal boundary.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$