130
FXUS61 KCAR 190432
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1232 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will cross the region overnight, then exit across
the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure will move south across the
region Sunday into early next week, then build south of the area
through the middle of the week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Update...
An upper level disturbance will begin to exit across the
Maritimes overnight. Expect isolated/scattered showers across
northern and central portions of the forecast area through early
morning, with numerous showers Downeast. Showers will then
begin to decrease late tonight in the wake of the exiting
disturbance. Otherwise, skies will remain cloudy along with
patchy fog overnight. Low temperatures will range from around 50
to the lower 50s across the forecast area. Have updated to
adjust for current conditions along with expected overnight
temperatures, clouds and shower chances.

Previous Discussion...
For Sunday skies should clear from northwest to southeast in
the afternoon with the North Woods likely topping out in the
lower 70s where most sunshine will be experienced. Downeast
coast will be last to see sun, if any, and likely to remain in
the lower 50s. However, nearly all inland locations will be
above seasonal norms with temps around 70F fairly common across
the area.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level ridge will help usher in shortwave energy
Sunday night. Clouds are expected to decrease to partly cloudy
with light winds and warm temps. By Monday, the surface ridging
remains bringing S flow across the region. This should help push
temps into the upper 70s. By the afternoon, a weak frontal
boundary is expected to move through, causing enough instability
for convective showers to form in the north. With CAPE values
over 100 J/kg and steepening lapse rates, decided to include
slight chance for thunderstorms mainly in the fair north but
could move further south. For the south, partly sunny skies.

By Monday night, lingering showers are expected to remain in
the north early then dissipate by midnight. Expect a fairly mild
night with temps in the upper 50s in the north and upper 40s in
the south. By Tuesday, a weakening low pressure should bring
another round of showers to the north and clouds to the south.
Slightly stronger and more widespread afternoon instability in
the north is expected, which could produce thunderstorms in the
north.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Per the previous forecast: Upper ridge will continue to extend
northeastward across the region through mid week with a warming
trend. Wednesday looks like an even warmer day with 925MB
temperatures progged to climb to 20C-23C across the region, thus
expect the potential for highs in the mid to upper 80s for some
inland locales. Appears another short wave will cross the region
Wednesday afternoon with the chance for showers. With the
warming temperatures and increasing low level moisture have
included slight chance thunder as well. Cold front approaches
Thursday with chance for more showers and possible
thunderstorms. Cooler weather follows the front for the end of
the week.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions overnight ranging from VFR to
LIFR with showers and patchy fog. Variable conditions persist
early Sunday. Isolated showers possible Downeast early Sunday.
VFR/MVFR ceilings Sunday afternoon. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots
overnight through Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Sun night-Tue...Mainly VFR, with possible MVFR
north in slight chance afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms.
Light SW winds.

Tue night-Thu...MVFR/IFR in rain showers and possible slight
chance afternoon thunderstorms. SSW winds 5-10 kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
overnight through Sunday. However, seas could approach small
craft advisory levels on the western waters overnight. Numerous
showers overnight, then scattered showers early Sunday. Patchy
fog overnight through early Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below SCA conditions for this
period.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Buster
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Norcross/LaFlash
Marine...Norcross/LaFlash