Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 282223
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
623 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the area through Tuesday. A cold
front could affect the area next Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will steadily build into the area tonight. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms managed to develop late this
afternoon with the upper trough overhead. Interestingly, there
was a "stronger" storm that developed and produced small hail
(smaller than pea) via a report from a spotter. Any lingering
activity will diminish by sunset with dry and quiet weather for
the remainder of the overnight. Clouds will also dissipate with
the loss of heating, so expect a generally clear night with
lows dropping in the upper 30s/lower 40s well inland to around
50 along the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday through Sunday: Overall, very tranquil conditions will
prevail across the forecast area through the weekend. Aloft,
broad ridging will gradually build across the eastern half of
the CONUS. High pressure will shift across the region on Friday
and then settle in across the western Atlantic for the weekend.
Skies should be clear for much of the weekend, with just a few
periods of thin cirrus. The main forecast issue will be
temperatures. Highs will be coolest on Friday, with temperatures
topping out right around 70 which would be a few degrees below
normal. Low-level thickness values then surge each day Saturday
and Sunday. The result will be highs in the mid to upper 70s on
Saturday followed by low 80s for Sunday. Each afternoon this
weekend should also bring a nice progressive sea breeze as the
temperature difference increases between land areas and the
still relatively cooler shelf waters.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet conditions will continue into early next week before the
next chance of rain comes by the middle of the week. Ridging
aloft, high pressure at the surface, and warm temperatures will
continue through Tuesday. A cold front is then expected to
approach the forecast area from the west Tuesday night and is
currently progged to push offshore sometime Wednesday evening or
Wednesday night. The front looks quite progressive and should
bring a quick shot of showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms. Model guidance suggests there will be plenty of
deep layer shear, though not terribly impressive instability.
So, it is possible there could be at least a low end severe
threat on Wednesday. Temperatures will cool back to near normal
behind the front for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
28/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: MVFR cigs will lift to VFR by mid-afternoon. VFR
will prevail thereafter. Gusty winds with gusts 20-25 kt will
linger through late afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Winds and seas will slowly diminish over the waters
this evening as high pressure builds in from the west and
northwest, though there will be another brief wind surge late
towards daybreak. Small Craft Advisories persist for the
Charleston county waters until 10 PM this evening, and then
through the night for the outer Georgia waters where 6 foot
seas should linger.

Friday through Tuesday: A Small Craft Advisory will continue
for the outer Georgia waters into early Friday afternoon due to
lingering 6 ft seas. Otherwise, winds will turn southwesterly
later in the day on Friday and will remain that way through the
weekend and into early next week. Winds will mostly be in the
10-15 knot range, but could surge modestly higher at times as
the sea breeze develops each afternoon. Also, the gradient
between the offshore high and an inland surface trough will
support stronger winds at times. A period of more uniformly
stronger flow will be possible later on Tuesday as a cold front
draws closer and the pressure gradient tightens. Its possible
that marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions could occur in the
Charleston County waters for periods of time over the weekend,
and then again by Tuesday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...


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