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000
FXUS63 KDDC 200725
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
225 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering rain chances (20-30%) continue through mid-day.

- Elevated to near-critical fire risk expected Monday.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

WV imagery indicates a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains downstream of an upper level shortwave trough
pushing slowly east through southern California. Near the surface,
high pressure is sliding southeast across the high plains of eastern
Wyoming and western Nebraska.

Based on radar trends/CAMs, rain chances (20-30%) will linger
through at least mid-day as a series of H5 vort maxima continue to
kick out of the Colorado Rockies and through the high plains of
western Kansas. With sufficient mid/upper level moisture available
combined with the help of increased lift from an easterly upslope
flow, periods of light rain can be expected into early afternoon
before slowly dissipating through Saturday evening/night. As of
now, the HREF only shows a meager 10-30% probability of 6-hr QPF
exceeding 0.1 of an inch by early afternoon. Below normal temperatures
are forecast today as surface high pressure slides southeast through
the Western High Plains, reinforcing a colder air mass across the
region with H85 temperatures holding below 5C. Under increased cloud
cover, the HREF paints a 60-80% probability of temperatures exceeding
45F in west central Kansas to the same probability of highs topping
50F in south central Kansas. Expect lows tonight generally down into
the 30s(F) with the HREF indicating a 30-40% probability of temperatures
dropping below freezing in west central Kansas, yet staying above
freezing in south central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Drier conditions are expected early in the period as medium range
ensembles point to an upper level trough swinging southeast through
the Central Plains Sunday, giving way to a more westerly flow aloft
across the region Monday while much drier air in the lower/mid levels
dominates the high plains of western Kansas. There is an outside
chance (20-30%) for rain across portions of central Kansas Monday
night as ensembles show an upper level trough dipping through the
Dakotas, ushering an attendant cold front into northern Kansas
sometime late Monday/early Tuesday. However, available moisture
looks to be limited, possibly accounting for the lower precip
chances. This is supported by the NBM 4.1 painting as little as
a 10% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch around
the I-70 corridor by early Tuesday morning.

A warming trend will ensue Sunday as a surface high begins to depart
eastward out of the Western High Plains, returning southerlies to
western Kansas late in the day, and helping push H85 temperatures
well above 5C in central Kansas to a little above 10C in far southwest
Kansas. With the NBM 4.1 indicating a 40-60% probability of temperatures
exceeding 60F, look for widespread afternoon highs in the lower/mid
60s(F). The warming trend culminates with well above normal temperatures
Monday with prevailing southerlies enhancing warm air advection into
western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures above 15C in central Kansas
to near 25C in extreme southwest Kansas. The NBM 4.1 paints a 50-70%
probability of temperatures climbing above 75F in central Kansas
with greater than 90% of highs exceeding 80F in extreme southwest
Kansas. A cold frontal passage projected by early Tuesday will drop
temperatures closer to seasonal levels Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Areas of light rain will continue across portions of west
central Kansas and central Kansas overnight. Otherwise, mainly
VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late morning. Developing low level stratus may result in MVFR
cigs in vicinity of KHYS, KGCK, and KDDC generally after 16-18Z.
Light east-northeast winds are expected to persist throughout
the period as surface high pressure in the Northern High Plains
spreads slowly southeast into the high plains of northeast
Colorado and southwest Nebraska.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Monday brings a return risk of elevated and near critical fire,
but perhaps only over a limited area. A departing surface high
across the southern plains toward the gulf will generate gusty
winds for certain. Winds in the far western counties might be
dropping off in the afternoon (losing gust potential). The key
factor will be the moisture spreading northward characterized by
the surface dew point which at this point the NBM (smart combo
of some models and climo) spread low to mid 40s dew points into
the region. There will probably at minimum be a corridor of
elevated to near critical fire risk somewhere around highway
corridors 25 and 83 where meteorological elevated to critical
risk is going to be a concern in the afternoon.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert