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000
FXUS63 KDDC 250559
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather risk on Thursday for areas along and east of
  highway 83.

- Fire weather risk on Thursday for areas along and west of
  highway 83.

- Potential fire and severe weather risk for Saturday as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

18z obs and RAP upper air analysis shows a widespread cloud deck
across southwest Kansas with the last areas of morning
convection well to the south and east. 500 mb winds have a ridge
across the Rockies with an embedded shortwave developing in the
front range and a large closed low still well off the Pacific
coast of California.

For tonight the position of the longwave trough/upper low should
quickly move into the Colorado river basin in the desert
southwest which will push the upper level ridge eastward into
the central plains. With this we will also see a layer of warmer
air in the mid levels with many models showing around 8-10 (C)
700 mb temperatures which will be important to monitor as it
will affect our storm chances on Thursday. Ahead of the warm
front we should have a 700 mb shortwave coming out of the front
range from eastern Colorado through central Kansas and with good
moisture advection along the front and wave we should see an
area of thunderstorms develop mainly after midnight for areas
along and east of highway 83. These storms should move quickly
to the east into central Kansas by morning and with low CAPE
values forecast this rain and storm should stay below severe
limits.

Thursday the SPC has put an enhanced risk of severe weather for
areas along and east of highway 83. Three things we have been
noticing so far that could mitigate the risk is how much
thunderstorm outflow/clouds/colder air hangs around from what we
get tonight in our eastern zones. Also the warm mid layers at
700 mb will produce a strong cap all across southwest Kansas
with the 25th percentile temperatures at 8 (C) and 90th at 9-10
(C) suggesting a >90 % chance of a strong cap. With temperatures
in the mid levels that warm we would need the areas with
moisture to get to near 90 degrees to break the cap which is not
looking promising at this point.  Also models are lagging the
forcing at 500 mb until well after 00Z to also help break the
CAP. Some CAMs have been showing no convection at all however if
a storm can break the CAPE the bulk shear and CAPE values would
support supercells capable of hail greater than 2 inches and
damaging winds. If supercells can stay discrete through 7 pm the
low level jet will increase and introduce a tornado threat and
we can`t rule out a strong tornado potential. This is what would
be call a classic conditional severe weather risk.

Fire weather threat west of highway 83 will be the result of a
dryline moving in from the west and reaching to the Scott City-
Liberal line and southwest winds will be 20-30 mph with relative
humidity values falling to below 15%.

Thursday night any convection that develops will race to the
north and east as the 991 mb surface low moves into southwest
Nebraska and the dryline/cool front moves to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Friday the low from the surface to 500 mb will move into central
Nebraska and will sweep drier air through southwest Kansas.
Winds will increase through the day especially for areas along
and north of K-96 with wind speeds at 20-30 mph with higher
gusts.

Saturday will have both severe and fire weather potential in
southwest Kansas. Medium range ensemble models have an upper low
moving from the four corners region Saturday morning to
southeast Colorado by late afternoon. Moisture profiles have the
highest levels in central Kansas with the drier air for much of
southwest Kansas along and west of highway 283. Elevated to
critical fire weather potential is high (>80%) as winds will be
out of the southwest at 20-30 mph with higher gusts. Severe
weather at this point looks to be mainly along and east of
highway 281 with the greater potential more into central Kansas.

After Saturday ensemble upper air forecasts go more zonal and we
will go dry and warmer for the middle parts of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Low level moisture was streaming northward into a cool air mass
north of a warm front. Expect thunderstorms overnight in
vicinity of KHYS. Given the warm and moist advection, expect
CIGS to drop to IFR and possibly LIFR by 10-13z before slowly
improving with daytime heating and the passage of a warm front.
Thunderstorms will form near a dry line by 21z, possibly
affecting KGCK and KDDC between 21 and 01z, and KHYS after 00z.
These storms could be severe with hail and damaging wind.
Expect southeast winds to become southerly at 20-25 kts by
18-21z as the warm front passes.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9
PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Finch