277
FXUS63 KDLH 080531
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1231 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog will occur tonight and end around 7-8 AM Wednesday
  morning, most dense along the South Shore and in Aitkin,
  Carlton and at the top of the hill in Duluth.

- Frost is possible (60% chance) in the Arrowhead Wednesday
  night. A freeze is likely in NW WI Thursday night.

- Two weak clippers cross over the area bringing light rain
  Friday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

A fairly large and dynamic low pressure to our west is rotating
bands of rain and thunderstorms north into our forecast area
this afternoon. Clearing behind a warm front this morning and
the subsequent heat loss from precipitation and lack of
insolation due to cloud cover has set up a baroclinic zone with
a secondary warm front lifting north this afternoon. A sliver of
MUCAPE sneaks northward into the southern portion of our
forecast area peaking out around 1500 J/kg per the latest RAP
analysis in concert with 20 kts of 0-6 km shear. This gives a
bit of a stronger thunderstorm threat albeit isolated to our
southern border which is pretty close to where the SPC marginal
risk is for this afternoon though I may have extended that line
a bit more west into Aitkin County. Most storms should be run
of the mill, but there may be some overachievers. Luckily the
window for good convection isn`t too large and the stronger
storm threat decreases greatly after 00Z.

The rain that does or has fallen will saturate the BL overnight
causing fog to form though it may be just a low stratus deck as
the waves of precipitation that rotated north over us today sag
back south again overnight bringing low clouds and possibly
drizzle in concert with the fog.

High pressure builds Wednesday with skies clearing overnight
causing temperatures to plunge and this will give the potential
for frost in the MN Arrowhead on Wednesday night. An even
deeper plunge into sub-freezing temperatures across NW WI
occurs Thursday night and will likely need some frost/freeze
headlines.

Afterwards, it`s active, but not too bad with clipper systems
expected Friday and Sunday. Each of these are warm enough for
just plain rain, but also not a lot of rain <0.5" per system and
probably less than 0.25" for most places.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Isolated light rain showers linger along the North Shore and in
northwest Wisconsin over the next few hours, but are not
expected to impact TAF sites. IFR, locally LIFR, visibility and
ceilings are expected to form over the next two hours along the
South Shore, in Aitkin/northern Pine/Carlton Counties and near
the Twin Ports as fog of Lake Superior sets up through 12-14Z
Wednesday morning. Drizzle and isolated vicinity showers are
again expected after the fog lifts later Wednesday morning and
lasting into the afternoon mainly along and south of US Hwy 2.
Easterly winds near the lake increase again gusting to 25 knots
by 17Z Wednesday. Prevailing VFR conditions across the entire
region by 21Z and lasting into Wed night.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Still expecting some occasional gales along the North Shore this
afternoon so keeping the gale up there, but did trim off the
southern portion of it. Small crafts follow with a little break
early Wednesday before winds and waves build again. We may flirt
with gales near the Twin Ports again Wednesday afternoon in
strong northeasterly flow.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Wolfe