420
FNUS73 KDLH 060927
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for C unit...dnr
National Weather Service Duluth MN
427 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 06.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Light southerly 20-foot winds early this morning increase by late
morning and lead to increasing smoke dispersal values. Breezy
southeasterly 20-foot and transport winds are expected this
afternoon and evening at the fire site with minimum relative
humidity dropping into the upper-30% range today. There is a 40%
chance though that afternoon minimum RH does not drop below 40% at
the fire site, but kept a bit lower in the forecast. A wetting
rainfall is not expected at the fire site until early Tuesday morning
that lasts into Tuesday afternoon. The best chance of thunderstorms
producing gusty, erratic winds at the fire site is Tuesday afternoon.
An isolated stronger thunderstorm could produce mall hail less than
1 inch in size.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL increasing to 5300 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 17 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (49900 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (76400-98200 knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  65  67  70  71  72  72  71
RH..............52  45  40  41  38  37  37  38
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..9   10  10  11  11  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust.14  15  16  16  16  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.2 4.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.17  18  20  20  21  21  22  22
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100050  76  84  88  96  92  98  94

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
                    rain showers and thunderstorms after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0300, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL decreasing to 1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 14 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (87900 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to
                    fair (8100-26000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....                                   CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     0      0      10     10     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      2
Temp............71     65     60     57     55     54
RH..............34     41     49     59     64     64
20 ft wind......SE 11  SE 11  E 12   SE 13  SE 15  SE 16
20 ft wind gust.18     18     20     22     23     25
Mix hgt (ft)....4400   900    800    900    1000   1000
Transport wind..SE 23  SE 15  SE 15  SE 16  SE 18  SE 21
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100088     11     10     13     16     19

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers
                    through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1000, then 1 until 1600, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (22400-35000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.75 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC                       CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).70     90     100    80     60     50
LAL.............2      2      1      1      1      3
Temp............53     53     56     60     63     65
RH..............71     80     77     75     72     65
20 ft wind......SE 16  SE 15  SE 12  SE 11  SE 10  SE 10
20 ft wind gust.25     23     20     18     15     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1500   1500   1600   2000   2900
Transport wind..SE 22  SE 21  SE 20  SE 18  SE 15  SE 14
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100024     28     26     25     27     35

$$
Forecaster...Nathan
Requested by...ks
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413217.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL karl.sieve@state.mn.us