909
FNUS73 KDLH 061004
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Graham Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
504 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 06.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Southeasterly 20-foot winds remain around 10 mph today, while
transport winds increase from 17 mph this morning to 22 mph this
afternoon. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon is forecast
to drop to the upper-20% range although there is a 30% chance
that the minRH drops to 25% at the fire site. Southeasterly winds
remain breezy at the fire site tonight, helping to inhibit the
usual nocturnal inversion. A wetting rainfall is not expected at
the fire site until Tuesday morning that lasts into Tuesday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 5500 ft AGL late in
                    the morning.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (34200 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (80600-91600 knot-ft) late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  MC  MC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  63  66  67  69  70  69  69
RH..............55  44  40  36  31  29  30  35
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   9   10  11  11  11  11  11
20 FT wind gust.14  15  16  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.1 4.7
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.16  18  18  18  20  20  20  21
Haines index....3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100034  81  87  88  91  92  87  84

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL decreasing to 1200 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (74400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to
                    fair (10300-18000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............68     61     55     51     50     50
RH..............36     44     51     61     68     66
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 13  SE 16  SE 13  SE 12  SE 15
20 ft wind gust.19     21     23     23     22     23
Mix hgt (ft)....3900   1200   900    800    900    900
Transport wind..SE 22  SE 17  SE 18  SE 16  SE 16  SE 16
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100074     18     14     11     13     13

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 14 to 20 mph with gusts to around 29
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 22 mph shifting to the east
                    around 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15100-20700 knot-ft) increasing to good
                    (35100-53700 knot-ft) early in the morning,
                    then decreasing to fair (26500 knot-ft) late in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.46 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
Weather cov.....S CHC  LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     60     80     90     90     80
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............49     54     59     59     57     56
RH..............74     69     62     64     64     66
20 ft wind......E 17   E 19   SE 20  E 20   E 18   E 15
20 ft wind gust.25     27     29     29     27     23
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1600   2100   1900   1800   1700
Transport wind..SE 18  SE 28  SE 30  SE 29  SE 25  E 21
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100015     38     54     46     39     31

$$
Forecaster...Nathan
Requested by...Jon Knapper
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413226.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jonathon.knapper@usda.gov