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000
FXUS66 KEKA 131253 CCA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Eureka CA
553 AM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and damp weekend on tap with some snow in higher
elevations, then trending warmer for the work week, with strong
north winds for the first half of the week, especially along the
coast and over the water.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper level closed low will stall this weekend as
it wobbles and eventually pivots toward the east for the back half
of the weekend. Precipitation amounts are similar, but trending a
bit more in the southern CWA toward Mendocino and Lake Counties.
Convectively driven showers could push snow levels below 3K feet the
tonight. Kept snow levels considerably lower than numerical models
would suggest. Models are generally forecasting snow levels to be
too high compared to reality, as seems to be on par for this
season. These showers could put down at least a skiff of snow on
some higher roads near and above 2500 feet, but not enough to
launch a winter weather advisory. That being said, ensembles
indicate some interesting outliers to indicate potential of
snowfall/QPF heavier than in the deterministic forecast for
tonight. As the low pivots east, a deformation band could
potentially set up over the CWA with ensembles indicating
especially parts of Trinity County an area to watch for. Hi-res
models indicate about a 30% chance of two or more inches (when
adjusted for our forecast snow ratios) near Ruth, for example.
Again, not enough for an advisory at that elevation in Trinity
County, but still more than the deterministic forecast. Something
to keep an eye on for tonight.

Winds are still expected to increase behind the exiting trough
after the weekend with the increased pressure gradient. Warming
trend is becoming more pronounced in the forecast for the back
half of next week. Some morning temperatures in valley locations
dip into the 30s for the next few days, but too much cloud
cover/precip chances and at times wind, has kept this out of the
forecast. /MH

&&

.AVIATION...A closed surface low is nearing the coast today. The low
will generate mostly light rainfall, with TEMPO higher precipitation
rates that may touch into IFR in Mendocino and Lake counties. VFR
conditions will mostly prevail for ACV and CEC through the day
today. Closer to the low, bands of moderate rainfall rates will
propagate onto the coast and toward UKI early this morning, lowering
the CIGS and VIS to MVFR and perhaps TEMPO IFR (30%). CIGS will
slowly rise back to VFR in UKI late this morning and this afternoon,
while ceilings at CEC and ACV may drop more solidly to MVFR late
this evening and overnight as precip wraps around the low from the
east.


&&

.MARINE...Winds build from the SE this morning as the approaching
broadening surface low tracks closer to the coast somewhere near or
south of Point Arena. Gusts are expected to reach advisory level in
the southern outers for most of the day today, then weaken and
disorganize late this evening. Erratic and gusty winds are possible
in showers across all waters through early Sunday. A mid period, NW
swell will also build in this morning, reaching around 8 to 10 ft. A
Small Craft Advisory continues in the Southern Outer zone to account
for the seas of 10 to 11 feet and some gusts up to 25 kt. A steady
buildup of steep northerly wind waves in conjunction with stronger
northerly wind is anticipated for Sunday afternoon as this low exits
the region. Northerlies are then forecast to continue through much
of the coming week.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT
     this evening for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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