381
FXUS64 KEPZ 031731
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1131 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Dry southwest flow aloft will persist across this weekend and into
much of next week. Afternoon breezes this afternoon and Saturday
afternoon, will increase in speed Sunday and Monday as a Pacific
storm system moves over the Great Basin. The winds will create
blowing dust and combined with the very dry air, critical fire
weather conditions will also develop. The winds and critical fire
conditions will likely continue Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Current satellite/sfc obs show dry-line just east of Carlsbad-
Roswell line and with typical slow nocturnal westward movement,
will pass through those sites and near the eastern CWA border next
few hours before mixing out back eastward. Aloft, a weak short
wave trough over northern Utah will sweep east across the central
Rockies and allowing afternoon breezes to develop this afternoon.
High temps will remain around 4 to 7 degrees above normal. Much
the same again Saturday as a short wave trough moves up in the
sub-tropical jet that sweeps across southern New Mexico for more
afternoon breezes.

Winds begin a ramp up starting Sunday as a Pacific storm system
moves over the Great Basin. Winds become quite gusty with some
blowing dust both Sunday and Monday. With fire conditions becoming
critical many areas, will issue a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday
for the southern New Mexico zones. Winds over west Texas will be
slightly lower so will leave those zones out for now. The story
remains the same through the rest of the forecast period
(Thursday); windy afternoons, very dry airmass with critical fire
conditions continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW250. There will be lots of SKC. The winds
will be from the southwest and light to breezy (10 to 15 kts)
with gust up to 25 kts through 01Z. The winds will become less
breezy thereafter. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across
the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 407 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Very dry, warm, elevated to critical fire conditions will be with
us at least through mid week of next week, with no prospects of
rain through that period. Winds become gusty Sunday and persist
through Wednesday. A fire watch will be issued for NM zones for
Sunday, and more watches/RFW likely beyond Sunday. West Texas
zones left of watch Sunday due to slightly lower winds, but by
Monday and Tuesday their winds will be as high the rest of the
forecast area.

Min RHs: Lowland 7-12% through Wednesday. Mountains 10-18% through
Wednesday. Overnight recovery, especially the lowlands, will be
poor. Vent rates excellent through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  89  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            84  55  85  53 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces               88  54  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               86  53  86  54 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               66  40  67  37 /   0   0  10  10
Truth or Consequences    85  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              76  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   86  49  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                84  48  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       86  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                89  50  89  53 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Hancock             90  53  91  53 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               81  53  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   89  54  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             86  52  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           86  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            85  50  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    87  48  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 85  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                84  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  78  43  74  40 /   0   0  10  10
Mescalero                76  42  76  40 /   0   0  10  10
Timberon                 75  42  76  38 /   0   0  10  10
Winston                  79  43  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                83  48  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                84  48  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             78  41  79  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   80  43  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    83  39  83  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               78  35  78  35 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  79  47  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   84  48  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  84  49  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           84  48  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               77  47  77  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira