431
FXUS64 KEWX 140759
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
259 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An upper level trough is moving across TX this morning and the flow
is becoming west-northwesterly. At the surface, high pressure is
moving over the region and winds are light and variable. A cooler,
drier airmass has moved over our CWA. Temperatures and dewpoints are
five to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. Some patchy fog has
developed over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor. The patchy fog
will spread across more of the area before sunrise and then burn off
quickly. High pressure will move across our CWA today with quiet
weather expected. Skies will be mostly sunny and temperatures will
warm. Highs will range from the upper 90s over the Rio Grande Plains
to the upper 80s over the eastern zones. Tonight winds will turn
back to the south or southeast and increase in speed. Temperatures
will be warmer again with lows about five degrees warmer than this
morning. Southeasterly flow will continue Wednesday. High
temperatures will be about the same as today. A dryline will move
toward our northwestern area and may generate showers and
thunderstorms near the Big Bend region. Some of these storms could
move into Val Verde County Wednesday afternoon, but chances are low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A trough will be located over the northern Baja Peninsula Wednesday
night, expected to progress east towards the Plains through late
week. An impulse ahead of this system will bring precipitation
chances in the west as early as Wednesday night, although the better
precipitation chances arrive on Thursday. The best chances for
showers and thunderstorms this day resides over the eastern two
thirds of the area. High PWATS from 1.5 to over 2 inches will bring
the potential for heavy rain, especially over the far northeastern
portion of the CWA. WPC highlights a level 2 of 4 risk for excessive
rainfall for this area. Ample low level moisture and high CAPE
values are expected by the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that develop
will be capable of producing large to very large hail this day and a
level 2 of 5 for severe weather has been introduced by SPC over
portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains.

Some precipitation may linger into Friday as the trough moves across
the Central Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley, although
chances are lesser this day. Dry weather, clear skies, and warm to
hot temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week.
Widespread highs in the 90s and or low triple digits are expected
Sunday into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

This is a mostly VFR forecast for all terminals. Some MVFR visibility
will affect AUS and SSF during the early morning hours. Fog could
also develop at SAT, but chances seem too low at this time.
Otherwise, skies should be clear.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  67  91  71 /   0   0   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  64  91  69 /   0   0   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  65  92  71 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            87  65  88  70 /   0   0   0  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  72  97  77 /   0   0  10  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  65  90  68 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             92  65  93  72 /   0   0  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  64  91  70 /   0   0   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   87  65  90  70 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  67  92  73 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           92  67  93  73 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...27
Aviation...05