Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 281907
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
307 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Highlights:

 - Patchy, short duration frost in a few areas of the north, with
   better chances in the extreme NE zones.

 - Fire danger concerns will continue on Friday for much of the
   area.

Cumulus clouds continue across our SE zones, with sunny skies
elsewhere across the area. Humidity values have dropped into the
teens and 20s across much of the area. NW winds continue to gust
over 20 mph as well. Fuel moisture values have dropped below 10% in
many areas as well. As a result, have expanded the Fire Danger
Statement to more of north and central Georgia through the early
evening.

Winds are expected to drop off considerable after sunset. As a
result, good radiational cooling is expected. Low temperatures
across portions of N GA support frost formation, but due the the
dryness of the airmass and the short duration of coldest
temperatures should preclude all but patchy frost formation for 2-3
hours. However, frost is expected to be a bit more expansive and
long-lived across the extreme NE. As a result, have hoisted a Frost
Advisory in that area. Mentioned that continued higher wind speeds
in higher elevations of these counties will preclude frost
development.

Warmer temperatures are expected for Friday, with highs mostly in
the 70s outside of mountain areas. Winds will be much lighter, but
fuel moisture levels should be sufficient for us to need another
Fire Danger Statement. /SEC


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The extended forecast remains on track for this forecast update. Dry
conditions are expected to persist through the weekend, although
southwesterly low-level flow will promote the advection of warm and
moist air into the forecast area. A warming trend will also begin on
Saturday and persist through the early parts of next week, with
highs forecast to reach into the low 80s across the majority of
north and central Georgia by Monday afternoon. Continued warm air
advection into the region will provide instability for the next
system to work on Tuesday into Wednesday next week. The previous
discussion follows...

King

(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

The first portion of the long term period will be characterized by a
high pressure system centered over FL and the Bahamas, and
mid-/upper-level ridging over the Southeast. Winds will be westerly
to southwesterly as the forecast area is situated on the northern
fringes of the high. This setup will promote gradually increasing
temperatures and dew points Saturday through Monday. High
temperatures will generally be in the low-/mid-80s on Sunday and
Monday. While it will be dry, the increasing dew points will preclude
hazardous fire weather conditions on Sunday and Monday. That said,
fire weather conditions (relative humidity, winds/gusts, and finer
fuel moistures) will bear watching on Saturday.

For early Tuesday morning through Wednesday night, the GEFS and EPS
depict a positively-tilted mid-/upper-level trough traversing the
Southeast, while the CMCE depicts a less-pronounced trough passing
over as a cut-off low develops over the Four Corners region. The
differences in the placement/dynamics of the trough among the
ensemble guidance has an impact on where the primary area of low
pressure develops and moves, and thus the timing and intensity of
precipitation across the forecast area. Did not stray much from the
NBM guidance for PoPs, so not much change has been made from the
previous forecast package in this respect. Have included a slight
chance for thunder Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon as
the GEFS and CMCE are progging up to ~25% chance for CAPE >1000 J/kg,
with good agreement amongst the GEFS members. The GEFS, EPS, and
CMCE are also progging >60 kts of bulk shear. Putting these
ingredients together, at least isolated thunderstorms are expected
with the potential for stronger storms with gusty to damaging winds.
The QPF is widespread 0.25" to 0.75" with 1.0" to 1.5" across
portions of far north GA.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Cumulus field along with some thin high clouds continue to slowly
push E. Most TAF sites have completely cleared, and VFR conditions
are expected at all sites through the period. Winds will remain gusty
through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, but winds
are expected to drop off significantly after 00Z. Wind directions are
forecast to remain NW, with a backing to WSW at ATL late Fri
afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High for all elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  71  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         42  71  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     34  66  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    36  71  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        43  73  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     40  69  46  75 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           42  72  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            37  72  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  38  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         44  71  46  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for GAZ006-008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...SEC


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