Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 221955
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
255 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant winter impacts expected Sunday through Tuesday.
  Heavy snow and gusty winds are expected across much of the
  area. A winter storm watch remains in effect for much of
  eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota and adjacent
  regions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A strong upper low is expected to develop heading into
the weekend, and is expected to move very slowly across the region
through Tuesday. Ahead of the low, strong moisture advection will
bring long-fetch gulf moisture into the region. As such, confidence
in the occurence of heavy snow and blowing/drifting snow has
increased. Blended guidance, as well as deterministic, is in
reasonably close agreement regarding the presence of heavy snow. A
strong pressure gradient will combine with CAA to provide gusty
northeast winds that will gradually shift to the north as this upper
low pushes eastward.

There remains some temporal uncertainty between ensemble members,
but most members show a similar outcome where southeastern North
Dakota, west-central Minnesota, and the southern Red River Valley
have a 70 percent chance of seeing 12 inches or more snowfall along
with gusty winds. The potential to see Blizzard conditions is around
60 percent for the southeastern portions of North Dakota and into
the southern Red River Valley. Further north, Blizzard chances fall
to around 30 percent in the central Red River Valley, with the best
chances occuring Sunday night into Monday.

The greatest uncertainty at this time resides in the northern Red
River Valley and far northeastern Minnesota, where snowfall totals
will be lower. As winds increase out of the north on Monday, any
areas that receive snowfall could see visibility reductions due to
blowing snow. At this time, confidence is rather low regarding
blowing snow potential for the northern Red River Valley.

Lingering impacts are possible heading into Tuesday, but will be
dependent on the speed of the system as it exits the region. The
primary concern during this period would be light snow and patchy
blowing snow. Good lapse rates in the low levels indicate the
potential for isolated to scattered heavier snow showers, which,
when combined with gusty winds, could lead to sharply reduced
visibility at times.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Look
for winds to shift to the south later tonight, with wind speeds
remaining at or below 12 knots. Mid level cloud cover returns
starting late this evening, but is not expected to impact
ceilings. Light snow becomes possible starting around midday
Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
     evening for NDZ008-016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning
     for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...Lynch


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.