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000
FXUS64 KFWD 161009
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
509 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will shift east
of the I-35 corridor this morning ahead of a weak front. A strong
storm or two with hail and gusty winds may occur, but the overall
severe weather threat should remain fairly low. Other than some
minor grid updates to account for ongoing trends, the forecast
remains on track.


30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

An upper low over the front range of the Rockies will propagate
east through the Central Plains overnight through Tuesday. The
strongest forcing for ascent will remain to our north, keeping
most convection well north of the Red River. That being said,
isolated storms will remain possible during the overnight hours as
the strongest ascent arrives. A strong capping inversion will
keep these storms elevated in nature and likely sub-severe.

A surface low will accompany the upper level system, together
dragging a Pacific front east through the region Tuesday morning.
Scattered rain showers and an isolated storm or two will be
possible along and ahead of the front, but precipitation should
come to an end Tuesday afternoon as the upper low heads for the
Midwest and subsidence strengthens in its wake. There is a narrow
window where a surface based storm or two may develop late
morning/early afternoon over the far eastern counties before
subsidence takes over, which could pose a brief hail/damaging wind
threat, but the overall probability of severe weather still
remains low.

The front will stall just east of the I-35 corridor Tuesday
afternoon, and retreat to the northwest Tuesday evening.
Conditions will likely end up being warmer in the northwest side
of the boundary where drier air and sunnier skies will exist.
Highs in the mid 80s can be expected Tuesday afternoon generally
along and west of I-35, with lower 80s east of I-35. The
retreating front will draw moisture and low clouds north through
the area Tuesday night, keeping lows well into the 60s. Another
warm one is in store Wednesday with highs in the mid and upper
80s.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 326 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/

/Wednesday night through Monday/

Zonal flow aloft will set up the second half of the week,
resulting in a deepening surface lee trough across the Central
High Plains. An influx of Gulf moisture, coupled with the passing
of a few shortwaves, may produce a few showers Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Better storm chances will arrive when a
dryline and cold front move into North Texas Thursday
afternoon/night. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of
these surface features and very warm temperatures (highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s) will yield plenty of instability in the
warm sector. Models are also indicating there will be enough shear
to sustain updrafts likely resulting in strong to severe storms.
Right now it appears the biggest threat for storms will be north
of the I-20 corridor but this is all dependent on just how far the
dryline mixes east and how far south the cold front moves. Storm
chances will temporarily end Thursday night/Friday morning with
the arrival of slightly drier air. However, models continue to
point towards an overrunning pattern setting up Friday night
through the weekend which will produce numerous showers and
thunderstorms and a potential for heavy rainfall. We will keep
high PoPs through Saturday and decrease them Sunday when the
shortwave trough axis passes to the east. The start of the work
week should be rain-free but it does look like more rain will
return by the middle of next week.

Temperatures will be warm Wednesday night and Thursday with lows
in the 60s to around 70 and highs from the mid 80s to the lower
90s. Temperatures will be cooler on the weekend due to cloud
cover, cold air advection behind the front, and plenty of rain-
cooled air. The coolest day will be Sunday with highs staying in
the 60s and lows Sunday night falling into the 40s and lower 50s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Occasional light to moderate rain showers will warrant VCSH in
area TAFs this morning, with precip ending early this afternoon.
MVFR cigs will also hold over most of the region through the
morning hours, with improvement to VFR by 17Z. MVFR will return
areawide after 06Z tonight. Otherwise, gusty south to southwest
winds will drop to 8-10 kt after 00Z this evening.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    87  70  87  69  89 /  20   0   0   5  40
Waco                85  70  85  69  88 /  20   0   5  10  40
Paris               81  67  83  66  84 /  30   5   5  10  40
Denton              84  66  86  65  88 /  20   0   0   5  40
McKinney            86  67  86  67  86 /  30   0   0   5  40
Dallas              87  70  87  69  89 /  20   0   0   5  40
Terrell             83  69  84  68  85 /  20   5   0  10  40
Corsicana           83  69  85  70  87 /  20   5   5  10  40
Temple              85  68  86  68  88 /  20   0   5  10  40
Mineral Wells       86  63  89  65  91 /  20   0   0   5  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$