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000
FXUS66 KHNX 142010
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
110 PM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Well below temperatures will prevail today before rebounding
early this week.

2. A disturbance will continue over Central California,
resulting in a chance for rain through this afternoon with snow
in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County Mountains above 5,000 feet.

3. A few strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and
evening, mostly over the valley portion of Kern County.

4. A significant warming trend is forecast to extend through
Thursday, then temperatures are expected to remain steady
through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper level trough that brought the cold front through the
area yesterday is expected to move out of the area by tomorrow.
There is still the possibility (15-20%) for a few strong
thunderstorms this afternoon has the clouds move off and the
ground begins heating. Though these storms are expected to
mostly be in the valley portions of Kern County and are not
expected to form north of Tulare County. There may also be
lingering snowfall in the mountains above 5,000 feet through
the afternoon.

As the trough moves away, ridge-building will begin, resulting
in calmer weather and rising high temperatures, beginning on
Tuesday. A significant warming trend from Tuesday through
Thursday will increase afternoon highs 6-10 degrees above normal
for this time of year. This will be a marked difference when
compared to today expected highs, which will be more than 10
degrees cooler than normal. Here are the probabilities for
select locations in the valley seeing high temperatures of 85
degrees or higher on Thursday:

Fresno: 56%Visalia: 46%
Hanford: 36%Lemoore: 36%
Delano:26% Bakersfield: 21%
Porterville: 16% Madera: 11%
Merced:11%Reedley: 11%

After Thursday, temperatures are expected to remain steady
through the next week, due to a more zonal flow in the 500mb
pattern. The long range ensemble models show this will continue
through early next week as well.

&&


.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms may produce isolated IFR conditions between 19Z
today and 03Z Monday. Snowfall above 5,000 feet will produce
areas of MVFR with local mountain obscuring IFR conditions
through 12Z Monday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for
the Central California interior for at least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  04/13/2024 13:37
EXPIRES: 04/14/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Public/Aviation/Fire Weather.......EW
IDSS/PIO...........................AB

weather.gov/hanford