Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

000
FXUS66 KHNX 250940
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
240 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A High Wind Warning continues for the Mojave Desert Slopes
and a Wind Advisory for the Kern County Mountains through 11 pm
on Friday.

2. A cooling trend to jest below seasonal normals lasting
through Friday.

3. The next storm system will impact Central California Friday
with mountain snow, foothills rain, and chance of valley
thunderstorms.

4. A warming trend begins on Sunday and lasts through the week
ahead with dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The upper level wave continues to move off to the east into the
Desert Southwest. On the surface a low pressure center over
south central Nevada and high off the California coast will
maintain a very tight pressure gradient over the Kern County
Mountains. This gradient is expected to tighten up throughout
the day and continue through Friday night. The PoE of 60 mph is
80 to near 100% for the Mojave Slopes focused on Highway 58 and
Highway 14. The probability of exceeding 70 mph is 20-30% near
the intersections of the aforementioned highways. The
surrounding Kern County Mountains PoE of 45 mph remains 80 to
near 100% through the same period as the warning. The current
timing and alignment of the warning and advisory is very
reasonable for the event. Areas of blowing dust are probable for
the Slopes area however the reduction in visibility to less
than 1/2 mile is near zero percent.

On Friday an upper wave in the the northwest flow slides down
through the Golden State. The decrease in upper level heights
and lapse rates along with convective energy increase provides
the probability of thunderstorms for the Sierra and San Joaquin
Valley from early afternoon through the early evening hours. The
probabilities of thunder are as follows:

Tioga Pass             19%  Yosemite Valley                20%
Wawona                 21%  Oakhurst                       20%
Merced                 11%  Madera                         11%
Shaver Lake            20%  Fresno                         12%
Grant Grove            18%  Visalia                        12%
Hanford                 9%  Lemoore NAS                     8%
Delano                  9%  Bakersfield                     8%
Kernville              12%  Tehachapi                       7%
Lebec                   7%  Pine Mountain Club              6%

Saturday northwest flow continues over the area and slowly
transitions to zonal westerly flow by Tuesday. The zonal flow
continues through next Thursday. The long and short of it a
warming trend back into the 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday for
the San Joaquin Valley. Here is a PoE table of 80 degree or
better temperatures this week:

                           SUN  MON  TUE  WED  THU
Merced                     16%  21%  61%  46%  16%
Madera                     21%  36%  66%  51%  21%
Fresno                     51%  66%  86%  71%  36%
Reedley                    11%  31%  66%  56%  21%
Lemoore NAS                41%  61%  76%  66%  31%
Hanford                    41%  61%  81%  71%  36%
Visalia                    41%  66%  86%  71%  36%
Delano                     41%  66%  81%  81%  36%
Bakersfield                26%  56%  76%  71%  36%
Edwards AFB                51%  81%  91%  86%  51%

The six to ten day CPC forecast is for normal temperatures and
near normal precipitation for the region. For reference the
normal temperatures and precipitation for the second week of May
are in Fresno: High 81, Low 56, and precipitation 0.01 of an
inch. Bakersfield: High 83, Low 57, and precipitation 0.01 of an
inch.

The eight to 14 day CPC forecast takes the temperatures to below
average levels for Central California and near normal
precipitation, which is near zero for mid May, for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
A low VFR ceiling will continue UNTL 16Z-21Z clearing from
north to south in the SJV. Then VFR and unlimited after 21Z. The
Sierra and Kern County Mountains may have localized mountain
obscurations. The Kern County and Mojave Desert has a high
probability of surface wind sustaining above 30 KTS through the
TAF period.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  04/24/2024 14:25
EXPIRES: 04/25/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ338.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ331-333-334-337-
339.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
DSS/PIO....SM

weather.gov/hanford