National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KHUN 181821
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
121 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 909 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Low clouds have persisted through the morning hours but should
begin to thin from east to west heading into the afternoon hours.
We remain in a broad warm sectored airmass, and the combination of
southerly flow and sunshine this afternoon will help temperatures
rise into the low to mid 80s.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to our north and
west this afternoon, and while the local area becomes fairly
unstable, the lack of a stronger forcing mechanism will lead to a
dry forecast through much of the afternoon. Will be closely
monitoring things to our west this afternoon, as a shortwave
disturbance nears the area and will lead into showers and
thunderstorms moving through the area later this evening. More on
this in the following section, but a few storms could become
strong enough to produce gusty winds and hail. Only minor changes
to sky cover and PoPs were needed during the morning update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The threat of a few strong to severe storms will increase this
evening as the shortwave moves into the middle TN and AL. Forecast
soundings indicate SBCAPE reaching 1500-2000 j/kg and 6km bulk
shear of 30-40kt should be sufficient for supercells with large
hail and damaging wind the main hazards. That`s round 1.

Round 2 may come very late tonight into Friday associated with a
cold front. If anything, bulk shear may increase to 40-45kt with
CAPE values potentially going above 2000-3000 j/kg ahead of the
front. The front and storms should exit before sunset.

With flow in mid to upper levels becoming more zonal over the
weekend, multiple weak shortwave impulses may bring a few showers
Saturday afternoon and night. The greatest chances of rain and
perhaps a few thunderstorms in our far southern counties will be
on Sunday as a more pronounced shortwave tracks east through eh
Gulf states. The highest chances for steady rainfall will be in
our southern counties, with lower chances in southern TN and far
north AL. And it will be a chilly rain at that, with highs only in
the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Monday will be dry but still cool with highs in the 60s as high
pressure at the surface overspreads the OH and TN valleys. Dry
weather should last through Tuesday with temperatures warming
back into the 70s. On Wednesday, upper troughing resulting from a
strong upper low in Quebec and Ontario, will bring a cold front
south through the TN valley. At this point, leaning toward a dry
forecast, but it is borderline and may need further changes later
if the models come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions have developed as early morning low cigs have since
cleared. The main impact for aviation over the next 24 hours will
be rounds of thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. Chances
for thunder will increase during the evening hours, and another
round is expected tomorrow morning. Gusty winds and large hail are
possible with stronger storms. Reductions to MVFR to even LIFR
conditions are possible tonight into tomorrow with heavier showers
and lowering cigs.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25