029
FXUS64 KHUN 020148
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
848 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 848 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening with
high pressure in control. Mostly clear and calm conditions will
once again be the rule tonight, but unlike last night the boundary
layer will be much drier. Thus, do not anticipate fog developing
and being an impact late tonight or early Thursday morning. Still,
the clear/calm conditions will create a setup up favorable for
radiational cooling and expect low temperatures to drop off into
the mid/upper 50s across southern middle Tennessee and northeast
Alabama -- and the lower 60s elsewhere across northern Alabama.
Only minor tweaks made to the forecast based on the latest
obs/trends as everything remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Tomorrow, mid level ridging will continue to push east. One last
day of high pressure influence will grant us another afternoon of
near record high temperatures in the mid to high 80s. With
tomorrow being the warmest day in this current pattern, there is a
low chance a few locations could see their first 90 degree day of
the year.

Overnight Thursday into Friday is when we will see a pattern
shift. Mid level ridging will begin to deteriorate giving way to a
more zonal flow pattern. This will allow several short waves to
ripple east across the area bringing our next chance for rain and
storms Friday through Saturday. Rain chances pick up from the
east early Friday morning with medium to high (30-70%) PoP`s
remaining through late Saturday night. Highest chances for rain
currently look to be both Friday and Saturday afternoon. The
severe threat during this period remains low. Elevated convection
will likely produces some rumbles of thunder however heavy
rainfall looks to be the biggest threat with this system.

While QPF currently remains below an inch for the entire area,
a few factors will align to make heavy rainfall a threat. PWAT
values will be near or just above 1.5" placing us well within the
90th percentile per SPC sounding climatology for BMX along with low
and mid level RH >80%. With a very saturated atmosphere, heavy
rainfall is very possible with a marginal (1/4) risk for excessive
rainfall from WPC issued from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Thursday for the
whole area. Without impressive QPF amounts, slow moving storms
(only 15-20 KTs of steering flow) with efficient rainfall rates
could produce localized nuisance flooding in flood prone areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Scattered/numerous showers/tstms look to continue into the first
half of the weekend period, as a weak frontal boundary drifts SE into
the mid TN Valley and stalls. Weak zonal flow aloft coupled with
minimal low-level convergence should offset the prob for
organized/stronger tstms, although brief heavy rainfall cannot be
ruled out. Rainfall will then diminish during the second half of the
weekend, as the front weakens invof the area. Seasonably warm temps
look to continue thru the weekend period, with highs Sat/Sun
remaining predom in the lower/mid 80s, while lows into early Mon
trend in the lower/mid 60s. Scattered showers/tstms are then expected
on Mon, as the weak sfc boundary lifts back to the north as a warm
front. Once again, overall synoptic forcing looks fairly weak
although locally heavy rainfall is possible with a few of these
showers/tstms. Rain chances will then diminish once again Mon
night/Tue, as weak upper ridging moves across the region and high
pressure at the sfc becomes established over the eastern Gulf region.
Little change is also expected with overall temps into the new work
week, with highs Mon/Tue once again in the lower/mid 80s and
overnight lows remaining in the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with light SE/SSE
winds and a mostly clear sky.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...AMP