375
FXUS63 KICT 220551
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1251 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong south winds expected Monday over central and south
central Kansas, wind advisory levels likely to be reached along with
elevated grassland fire danger

- Storm chances will be possible Wednesday/Wednesday night

- Periods of active severe weather could affect the region from
  Thursday-Sunday as rich Gulf of Mexico moisture is
  encountered by a couple strong weather systems

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Quiet weather conditions will be in store for tonight as surface
high pressure slides eastward into Missouri. Satellite water vapor
imagery shows a well defined upper wave now over Alberta, Canada
which will move east across the northern states on Monday and push a
cold front southward into Nebraska. The combination of tightening
surface pressure gradient and deep mixing of low levels should allow
momentum transfer from some of the 40kt 850mb wind maximum down to
the surface over much of central/south central Kansas. As a result
we will hoist a wind advisory for those locations eastward towards
the Flint Hills. We could see a glancing shot for some isolated
elevated shower/storm chances for central Kansas with better chances
further northeast Monday night into Tuesday morning. The cold front
will continue to push southward across Kansas on Tuesday and looks
to stall out over Oklahoma on Wednesday. Models show a decent mid-
level baroclinic zone residing north of the stalled frontal boundary
which looks to become activated from elevated moisture advection
late Tuesday night into Wednesday over Oklahoma. Some of this
activity could spread into southern Kansas Wednesday
afternoon/night.

Looking further west current wide view GOES satellite water vapor
imagery shows a healthy looking upper level system over the Pacific
Ocean between 160W and 150W longitude moving eastward. Models show
this system moving into the southwestern states Wednesday night and
ejecting eastward into the central plains by Thursday night. This
will cause the stalled out frontal boundary in Oklahoma to begin
lifting northward as a warm front Wednesday night, and push north
into Kansas later in the day on Thursday. The low level moisture
quality will continue to enrich as the warm front lifts north for
Thursday night. Thunderstorm chances look to increase especially for
Thursday night, as latest timing from the models shows main upper
level trough and associated upper forcing pushing into the region. A
active pattern could ensue heading into the weekend with another
robust upper wave quickly on the heels of Thursday nights system.
The low level moisture will remain rich adding to higher levels of
instability combined with increasing wind shear from each weather
system will bring increasing severe weather chances to Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Main aviation concern will be strong southwest winds this
afternoon.

A tight pressure gradient is expected to setup across the Plains
today and will allow for strong southwest winds. We are looking
for sustained speeds in the 25-35 mph range with gusts 40-45
mph. The strongest winds are expected for KHUT-KSLN-KGBD-KRSL.
Winds will quickly start to decrease around or shortly after
sunset. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain
in place through the next 24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Fire weather concerns will be elevated to very high for Monday
afternoon with warmer temperatures and strong south winds affecting
central/south central Kansas. Could see very high fire danger again
Friday afternoon across central Kansas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ