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000
FXUS64 KJAN 191200
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
700 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Today through Tonight...

Today: Water vapor/RAP imagery indicate >590DM ridge centered over
the Bay of Campeche, while quasi-zonal flow persists across the
region. Broad cold core/sfc low & frontal system are moving into the
Hudson Bay area, with another sfc low moving into the OH Valley.
This is bringing a cold front towards the area, where a few radar
returns persist across the Mid-South in southeast AR & northern
MS. Can`t rule out a stronger storm sliding into the Hwy 82
corridor over the few couple hours but likelihood is diminishing.
Main concerns remain for low stratus/dense fog this morning.
Warm, moist southwesterly flow gradually becomes westerly as the
sfc low swings into the OH Valley. There has been some vsby drops
across the Hwy 45 corridor with patchy fog, while dense fog along
the I-59 corridor up to Lauderdale County area. Main adjustments
were to add an "Elevated" for areas of dense fog in the HWO
graphics along & southeast of a line from Lincoln-Newton/Lauderdale
Counties, while an adjacent "Limited" along & east-southeast of a
line from Adams-Simpson-Neshoba-Oktibbeha/Clay counties. HREF
probs have been persistent for some dense fog so made that
expansion in the HWO graphics. This will persist through mid-
morning around 9AM. As the front sinks south, expect a gradual
improvement in low stratus/fog into the day. Rain & isolated storm
chances will dwindle & remain confined to east-northeast MS.
Winds will shift more northerly around daybreak in the Delta to
mid-afternoon northwest of the Natchez Trace. Highs will be
seasonably cool, in the low- mid 70s, in the wake northwest of the
Natchez Trace corridor, while seasonably warm, some +5 deg F
above normal, to the southeast in the low-mid 80s. Locales in the
Pine Belt could eclipse the 90 degree mark.

Tonight: As broad cold core low/sfc frontal system swing into the
Hudson Bay, frontal zone is expected to slide southeast through the
Gulf Coast states. Northerly winds will build in, but this front
won`t be a good clearing of deep moisture. It will clear out rain
chances briefly, before increased isentropic showers & possibly a
few rumbles of thunder build back into the ArkLaMiss Delta before
daybreak. Persistence will be the case for fog, with the Hwy 84
to I- 59 corridors, south of I-20, having the best chance for
patchy to patchy dense fog. For now, did not introduce dense fog
but another round of dense fog is probable. Will hold off any
graphics during this fcst package but may be needed later.
Seasonable lows in the mid-upper 50s are expected northwest of
the Natchez Trace, while seasonably warm to the southeast, in the
low-mid 60s. /DC/

Saturday through next Thursday...In the wake of a cold front, a
couple of disturbances will shift east across the region in zonal
flow during the upcoming weekend. This will result in decent chances
for showers, along with an isolated thunderstorm or two, across the
forecast area Saturday and again on Sunday.  Cooler drier air will
also advect into the region during this time.  Look for highs on
Saturday to range from around 60 to the upper 70s, and then in the
60s on Sunday.  Lows Saturday night will be from the upper 40s to
middle 50s.  Then noticeably cooler conditions will be seen Sunday
night, as lows cool into the low and mid 40s areawide.

As the final disturbance exits the region late Sunday, northerly
winds will persist as high pressure to the northwest builds into the
forecast area.  Quiet weather and drier air will exist across the
region Monday into Tuesday.  While conditions will steadily warm
through mid-week, another weak frontal boundary is currently
forecast to sink south into the forecast area late Wednesday into
Thursday.  At the moment, little to no chance of rain is expected
across the area.  However, this will bring an increase in cloud
cover across the CWA. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Low stratus/fog remain the main concern today, with mostly IFR
stratus around & limited dense fog concerns remain in the PIB/HBG
area. Expect any low vsby improvements after 19/14Z & ceilings to
lift later in the morning with daytime heating/mixing & MVFR/VFR
categories should prevail by afternoon. There will be persistent
lowered MVFR ceilings in northern TAF sites of GLH, GWO & through
the aftn hours. Most convection winded down overnight, with a weak
cold pool drifting just south of the Hwy 82 corridor. Some scattered
SHRA or VCTS is psbl into the aftn, mainly near GTR, but
confidence remains too low to put in the 12Z TAF cycle.
Persistence is likely again this evening with another round of low
LIFR/IFR stratus & psbl fog near PIB & HBG, mainly after
20/03-08Z. These low flight categories will persist through the
end of the 12Z TAF cycle. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  62  71  50 /  20  10  50  80
Meridian      86  61  74  49 /  20  20  40  60
Vicksburg     81  59  66  50 /  20  10  50  80
Hattiesburg   88  66  79  57 /  10  10  40  40
Natchez       85  63  73  51 /  10  10  40  70
Greenville    71  56  60  50 /  20  30  60  60
Greenwood     74  56  63  49 /  20  20  60  70

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/19/DC