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000
FXUS62 KJAX 241758
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
158 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

No significant updates to the forecast. Warming trend continues
after a seasonably cool morning. Highs are projected to push
toward the lower 80s this afternoon, except at the coast where the
sea breeze will work inland this afternoon keeping highs in the
mid/upper 70s.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure will dominate the pattern today with clear to partly
cloudy skies. Some very patchy light ground fog is possible in
inland areas through sunrise. A weak sea breeze will develop near
shore and will move inland 20 to 40 miles through the evening
hours. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s inland and the
lower to mid 70s at the coast. Low temperatures will be in the mid
to upper 50s inland and the lower to mid 60s coastal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Weak cold front will move into our southeast GA zones Thursday
morning and afternoon while tending to become more diffuse. High
pressure will build to the north of the front Thu night helping to
drag it further southward into Friday. Any progged isolated
shower activity with the front is only likely to be over the
coastal waters during this time frame.

High pressure continues to build in across the east coast Friday
while the west-east oriented front is diffuse near the FL/GA
state line. Low level flow turns more east to southeast and enough
moisture and sfc convergence are available to spark a couple of
showers. Upper levels are too stable and suppressed for any t-storm
activity. For now, will increase the chances a bit to around 10-20
percent area-wide with support from latest MOS and blended guidance.

Temps will be near normal during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Fairly quiet conditions this period with a mid/upper level ridge
over the region. A strong mid/upper level trough across the southwest
U.S. lifts to the northeast while an associated front moves to
the Ohio and TN valleys by Mon night. It will tend to be breezy
from easterly flow Saturday and possibly Sunday during the daytime
with a decent pressure gradient in place with center of the high
just off the New England coast. The high moves into the region by
Sunday night and into early next week. We could see some isolated
showers on Saturday but few and far between for most areas with
limited mid/upper level moisture, and maybe even less chances on
Sunday. A shower or two still possible across the coastal waters.

High pressure ridge will be over the area on Monday and most of
Tuesday, though the tail end of a weak cold front may move into
the area by Tuesday night, but little moisture appears available
for much of any precip.

Temps will be close to normal values through the weekend with a
trend towards above normal temps early next week as the ridge axis
slides southward. These high temps will generally be in the
mid/upper 80s over far inland areas, with lower 80s along the I-95
corridor and around 80 each day along the Atlantic Coastal areas.
More widespread mid to upper 80s anticipated for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions with scattered to broken cumulus this afternoon
around 5-6k ft. A sea breeze is slowly moving inland and will shift
coastal sites easterly at around 8-11 kts while otherwise winds will
be light. No concerns for restrictions overnight with the exception
of KVQQ where local drops to MVFR are possible due to mist. Light
winds, favoring a westerly direction, and VFR conditions maintained
elsewhere through 18z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

High pressure will dominate the waters through tonight with a
sea breeze developing near shore during the afternoon and evening
hours. A weak trough/front will approach the waters on Thursday
with high pressure building back in through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Low RH values into mainly the mid 30 percent range expected today
and Thursday, though some pockets to near 30 percent are possible
inland areas. Sfc winds and transport winds are slightly higher
today just to the northeast of Alma GA may lead to high dispersion
values. By Friday, high dispersion looks more probable for many
areas as sfc and transport winds will be higher. This is headlined
in the latest FWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  59  84  60 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  77  62  81  65 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  81  59  85  62 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  78  61  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  81  58  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  82  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$