212
FXUS62 KJAX 041705
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
105 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track as mid level trough pushing through the
SE US is enhancing ongoing convection across inland SE GA with
pockets of heavy rainfall just to the west of Waycross with
isolated totals of 2-3 inches. The moisture associated with this
trough will spread to the SE and interact with local sea breeze
circulations across coastal SE GA and NE FL where scattered
afternoon showers and storms are expected, where more heating well
into the 80s will provide enough instability for a few strong
storms with gusty winds to 40-50 mph and locally heavy rainfall.
Convection should fade after sunset this evening and shift into
the Atlantic Coastal Waters with partial clearing during the
overnight hours and patchy/areas of fog can be expected over
inland areas, especially where rainfall occurs today.

&&

.NEAR TERM...Today and Tonight...

Fog development this morning will be fairly sparse and generally
shallow, as elevated southerly flow maintains a somewhat mixed
boundary layer. Otherwise, a few showers continue to stream across
inland southeast GA early this AM as upper level diffluence
enhances downstream from an approaching shortwave just to the
west.

As that shortwave makes its way slowly eastward, the associated
cooling aloft and moistening mid levels will offer a sufficient
amount of diurnal instability this afternoon. With those
ingredients in play along with the sea breezes, scattered to
numerous showers are expected to develop during the mid and late
afternoon hours, mainly across interior SE GA and inland NE FL
west of Highway 301. Steep low level lapse rates will allow
potentially strong outflow winds in the vicinity of pulsing
storms. Outflow and sea breeze interaction may lead to a few
strong storms this afternoon and evening. Given a fairly weak
westerly steering flow, motion of storms today will be outflow
driven with a tendency to slowly drift back toward the east coast
as they weaken. In addition to a few strong gusts with the more
robust convection, PWATs pushing toward the 90th percentile
according to sounding climo will allow for localized heavy rain
(which will be beneficial given the ongoing dry spell).

Convective debris clouds will drift eastward tonight as convection
wanes with mostly quiet conditions through the overnight hours.
There will be another chance for at least patchy inland fog,
particularly in locations that receive a decent amount of rain.

Temps today will be modulated by cloud cover and the onshore flow
which should keep most of SE GA and coastal NE FL high temp readings
in the low/mid 80s while the rest of NE FL warms into the upper 80s
to near 90 this afternoon. Another mild night will follow the warm
afternoon with lows in the mid/upper 60s except at the coast where
onshore flow will keep lows from falling below 70F.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night)

Pattern of diurnal convection will continue through Sunday and
Monday as a series of mid level short waves pass over the region.
Shower and storm developments are expected to be largely scattered
with developments becoming more numerous along the diurnal sea
breeze boundaries and areas of convergence. High temperatures for
this period will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s for inland
areas and in the lower to mid 80s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)

Predominantly dry weather through the rest of the week as high
pressure ridging dominates the weather pattern. Sea breeze winds
will be largely pinned to the coast by midweek as prevailing flow
shifts to become more out of the southwest due to the positioning
of the high pressure axis. Temperatures will rise into the mid 90s
as the week progresses with temps potentially reaching record
seasonal levels by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Early morning convection over SE GA and abundant clouds has
delayed onset of diurnal sea breeze convection which should kick
off just a few hours later than usual and expect just VCSH at
coastal TAF sites, while still expect TEMPO TSRA possible at GNV
from 21-24Z and possible VCTS at VQQ, but otherwise less coverage
than expected earlier. Convection fades after 01-02Z and mainly
VFR conds through 07-09Z, then low level stratus/fog expected with
MVFR conds at GNV/VQQ/JAX through sunrise, then MVFR BKN025 at all
TAF sites in the morning from 12-16Z, before heating lift CIGS to
VFR levels with VCSH slowly kicking off at the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters
through the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will
continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure
repositions further south, shifting winds toward a southeasterly
direction early this week. Winds should trend offshore toward the
end of next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

Rip Currents: Risk will only increase to a low-end moderate level
as the Atlantic sea breeze develops during the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, low surf and light wind will keep risk low.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  64  88  66 /  80  40  50  20
SSI  79  70  82  69 /  20  20  40  20
JAX  85  67  87  66 /  20  20  40  10
SGJ  83  68  85  68 /  20  10  40  10
GNV  88  66  88  65 /  40  30  60  10
OCF  90  66  89  66 /  30  30  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$