099
FXUS62 KKEY 020233
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1033 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Currently - Complicated surface ridging across the northwestern
Atlantic and the southeastern United States is maintaining light
to gentle easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. This
evenings sounding indicated very little in the way of inhibition,
but what little there is exists quite low, based around 925 mb.
Despite troughing from the mid levels up, there is a dearth of
deep layered moisture with precipitable water around 1.16 inches.
To be fair, the Keys are situated just west of the axis. Shower
activity has been muted this evening with nearly all of it located
well away from the island chain. Seasonably warm conditions
prevail with temperatures just below 80 and dew points in the
lower 70s.

Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge complex will
remain fairly stationary and keep winds gentle out of the east.
Overall moisture profile is also expected to remain relatively
steady with some increase at the highest levels. Weak low level
inhibition should continue with low level lift remaining limited.
There are a number of upstream boundaries that could result in
localized forcing. On balance, a few showers cannot be ruled out,
but overall chances will remain slim. Expect overnight lows to be
near normal in the mid 70s with dew points remaining in the lower
70s. Ongoing forecast is on track and no update is planned.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Ridging will remain across the southeastern United States and keep
winds light to gentle across Keys waters through the overnight
period. No changes made in the evening marine update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals through the
overnight period. Surface winds will be light out of the east.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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