Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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359 FXUS64 KLCH 100520 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1220 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 910 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Strong to severe cells over east Texas starting to congeal into a line and looking like a severe and heavy rain threat will occur for portions of the forecast area mainly north of the I-10 corridor moving from west to east for the next 5 hours or so. Parameters on the 00z KLCH sounding have DCAPE over 1100j/kg with mid level lapse rate over 8.0c/km, with 0-6km shear at 58 knots. These are conducive for large hail and damaging downburst and outflow winds. PWAT also over the 90th percentile level and cells look to be produce high rainfall rates that will lead to a flood potential. Severe Watch is already out for locations with the higher probability to see the large hail and damaging winds until 3 am. Overall current forecast is on track and no significant changes needed at this time. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Haze continues to shroud the area on southerly winds which brought remnant smoke from Mexico into the region. Expect this haze to stick around through the evening and overnight - at the very least, should make for a very pretty sunset! The bigger talking point in the short term forecast is the arrival of a cold front and associated showers/thunderstorms to the region. Last update, the expectation was for convection to remain in north-central Louisiana. However, latest CAMs suites are bringing thunderstorms into south-central Louisiana with a more southerly trend to boot. The expectation now is for several clusters of showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front which will surge east and southeast into our northern zones. DCAPE and shear profiles will support strong downbursting wind segments which could produce isolated tornadoes. Lapse rates and CAPE will also support healthy updrafts and large hail. The question is whether or not these segments will end up in our area; forecaster confidence has lowered in regard to placement of storms, thus PoPs were increased down towards HWY 190 with the best chance on a Hardin to Beauregard to Evangeline line and north. The long and short of it: All hazards are possible with storms, especially strong winds and large hail. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out. This is a late night event, so we are cautioning folks to have multiple means of receiving emergency alerts. The concern for flooding rains also continues, especially for areas in the Hardin, Beauregard to Evangeline line and north. This is the best area for shower and thunderstorms which may produce heavy downpours. In the event of training rainfall and/or heavy downpours, there could be some flash flood risk. Most convection should be pretty progressive, so the chance of this is low, but not zero. Those concerned parties should continue to monitor radar trends and forecasts tonight. Cold front moves through overnight tonight into tomorrow morning bringing about much cooler and drier air. This will also wash the haze (and mosquitos) out into the Gulf! High pressure and dry air will keep the remainder of the short term cool and dry. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Rain chances return to the forecast as we begin the long-term as a shortwave is progged to cut off over the srn Rockies, while sfc high pressure pushes east of the forecast area and ushers in a moister srly flow off the Gulf. With forecast soundings indicating mean RH values rising to around 90 percent and PWAT values climbing to around 1.9 inches (well above the 90th percentile per SPC sounding climo), scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the day Sunday and linger through Monday night before the shortwave ejects ewd, dragging a cold front through the area. With the potential for heavy rains during this period, WPC is highlighting much of the forecast area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall both Sunday and Monday, with the remainder of the area is generally in a marginal risk. By Tuesday, the sfc boundary is progged to wash out east of the area with a return flow off the Gulf re-establishing itself quickly. Along with weak/nil capping and daytime heating, there is the potential for a few showers/storms during the day The remainder of the forecast period will see a gradual increase in POPs as another disturbance/sfc front are forecast to pass the area, along with increasing moisture. Below normal temps to start the long-term period will gradually warm through the period with temps jumping back to the mid/upper 80s for highs with mins back to mid/upper 60s. 25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The only terminal that is expected to be effected by any storm activity is KAEX and that will be through about 10/07z. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings and some minor visibility restrictions will be the main concern during the overnight. A cold front will move through turning the winds to from a more northerly direction. These winds will filter in drier air with low clouds lifting and VFR conditions by late morning. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 4 feet will prevail into tonight. Areas of fog and haze are likely to reduce visibilities, however, dense fog criteria is not anticipated. A cold front will push through the coastal waters late tonight into Friday morning, accompanied by isolated showers and thunderstorms. Offshore flow along with elevated seas will develop behind the front Friday and Saturday. Onshore flow becomes reestablished Sunday as high pressure slides east of the area. Precipitation chances will also increase again Sunday and Monday as a series of upper level disturbances move across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 61 82 62 77 / 10 0 10 30 LCH 65 84 66 79 / 10 0 10 50 LFT 66 86 67 84 / 10 0 10 30 BPT 67 85 68 81 / 10 10 10 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...07