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000
FXUS65 KLKN 192041
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
141 PM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Fair and warm weather will continue through the
upcoming weekend and into early next week. Weather becomes more
active mid-week with gusty winds and an opportunity for wetting
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night. Skies are partly to
mostly sunny over northern and central Nevada this afternoon.
Clouds are increasing in central Nevada due to a weak short wave
impulse moving through; an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out during the early evening hours. Not much in the way
of precipitation is expected. Have kept low end pops in the
forecast based on mid-level moisture profile and minor
instability. Look for skies to clear with mostly clear conditions
tonight. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s.

For Saturday and Saturday night, a shortwave ridge is expected to
push across northern and central Nevada. Some cloudiness is
expected though most areas will see a return to partly to mostly
sunny skies. Afternoon highs will warm into the upper 60s to mid
70s. Afternoon breezes to 20 mph will be possible. Quiet and clear
weather will continue through the overnight with lows in the 30s
and 40s. Winds will become light.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday

Warm, dry conditions expected to continue across the CWA through
early next week. Winds will be breezy out of the west-northwest
Sunday as a weak shortwave and cold front traverses the Great
Basin region. Temperatures will range from the 60s across far
northern NV to the upper 70s across central NV.

An unsettled weather pattern indicated in ensemble guidance will
get underway mid next week as a trough advances towards the CA
coast and provides favorable upper-level dynamics over the region.
By Wednesday, a deformation axis could develop over the state and
bring a SW-NE oriented band of showers and thunderstorms.
Confidence remains low, however, in terms of precipitation amount
and placement. The larger scale troughing pattern across the
western U.S. will continue for late next week, bringing more
widespread rain and mountain snow to the area. Temperatures are
expected to moderate next weekend with highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s along with increasing winds.

&&

.AVIATION...Cumulus and a few showers with little to no
precipitation or virga are expected today across White Pine
county including at KELY. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for
all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Few to scattered upper
level clouds will be across the area through Saturday. Breezy
winds from the W-NW expected to affect all TAF sites, increasing
to 10-15 knots Saturday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Many streams, creeks, and rivers across northern and
central Nevada continue to observe elevated flows. Mostly dry
conditions are expected through the weekend and into early next
week, however temperatures will also trend warmer which will help
to accelerate the melting of mid and high elevation snowpack.

The Bruneau River is currently in action stage, but may rise to
minor flood stage in the coming days.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain is currently in action
stage and expected to slowly recede over the coming days.

The Owyhee River near Wildhorse is currently in action stage and
expected to gradually rise in the coming days, forecast to
reach minor flood stage in the Tuesday timeframe.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City is expected to remain in
minor flood stage over the next several days.

Wildhorse Dam is currently in action stage and is expected to
gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the coming
days.

The Humboldt River at Comus is expected to reach action stage
late tonight or Saturday morning. Additional rises are forecast
with the river reaching near flood stage as soon as tonight or
Saturday morning.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/90/90