Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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175 FXUS64 KLUB 072339 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 639 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Southwesterly winds around 20-25 knots will continue across the region, mainly on the Caprock, through the late afternoon as a surface pushes southeastward into the northern Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle. A weak cold front will follow behind the surface low and will push into our northern zones shortly before sunrise tomorrow morning. The front will have little affect on temperatures tomorrow afternoon as highs are still expected in the 80s area wide. Winds will drop to less than 15 mph tomorrow afternoon as surface high pressure moves into the FA. Winds will, however, quickly veer to the west to southwest tomorrow as a surface low begins to develop in central New Mexico ahead of an upper shortwave. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Broad mid to upper level troughing over the CONUS in the medium term will push temperatures cooler, likely toward a range of 3-5 degrees in daytime highs and near normal for lows in the Thursday to Sunday period. An initial cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday night with low level cold advection persisting into Friday as the trough splits with western CONUS energy cutting off and developing a closed low over the Great Basin southward to the desert Southwest and a more progressive pattern in the eastern half of the split favoring cool air continuing spill southward as an upper level short wave trough rotates from the Plains to the Ohio Valley. This cooler, more stable air mass will keep the forecast precip-free through Friday. Short wave ridging overhead on Saturday will be downstream from the western closed low which is progged to being shifting eastward Friday night probably in turn helping to spark diurnal convection on the High Plains of eastern New Mexico where an axis of low level moisture is likely to develop in response to veered surface flow and resultant moisture advection. Models are in pretty good agreement with mid level support on the southeastern flank of the upper low favoring scattered thunderstorms moving into the forecast area Saturday evening and PoPs have increased accordingly. Models begin to diverge at this point with the mid/upper pattern back to the west with one camp favoring significant energy lingering over the Four Corners region and keeping a trough to our west/northwest while the other camp a more progressive evolution with ridging building in behind the departing wave. Either camp will favor some showers/thunderstorms in the forecast area Sunday as a short wave trough of some strength moves across the forecast area. This leaves a decent amount of uncertainty for Monday and Tuesday, although a modest warming trend should be favored and the potential for some unsettled conditions in mid May supports a prudent path of maintaining some thunderstorm mention in line with the NBM. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions are to prevail at all three TAF sites through the period. LLWS will be possible early tomorrow morning at all three sties with the increasing low level jet and a passing cold front, which will veer winds to the north. Winds will back to the south southwest by tomorrow afternoon. Wind speeds will diminish a bit this evening and remain generally around 10 to 15 knots through the entire TAF period. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...11