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000
FXUS64 KLZK 142312
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
612 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The Natural State was situated between sfc high pressure acrs the
southeastern states and low pressure centered over KS. This has
provided for breezy south winds acrs the FA today. Gulf moisture,
albeit shallow, has advected into AR as well, noted by sfc dewpoints
in the upper 50s/lower 60s and SCT-BKN low clouds over central
and southern AR. Mid aftn temps ranged from the mid 70s to the
lower 80s.

Model solutions cont to show that dry conds wl prevail for the most
part tngt and Mon. The low lvl jet wl kick in once again tngt,
allowing low stratus to again form later tngt into Mon mrng, with
all part N AR the favored locations. Expect lower clouds to break up
heading into Mon aftn in most areas, allowing highs to top out in
the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Convective chcs start to incrs over NW AR Mon night as an initial
SWT passes acrs the region. It still looks like the potential for
organized svr storms wl stay to the west of the FA. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage wl incrs in earnest fm the west on Tue, as a
CDFNT apchs from the west.

Regarding the potential for svr wx on Tue, the CAM solutions show
a high shear/low CAPE environment on place over AR. Ongoing convection
acrs western AR Tue mrng, is expected to strengthen later in the
day as the activity encounters a more favorable environment father
east.

Thoughts rmn that a broken line of storms could bring damaging
straight-line winds, along with an isolated tornado or two to the
FA. However, with the primary sfc low/upper dynamics passing north
of AR, confidence is somewhat limited for our area, with the
greater potential for organized svr storms further to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Unsettled long term begins with a line of storms and its associated
cold front already in the state with the upper level flow out of the
southwest.  Main upper level support with this system as tracked
well to the north of the state and upper and surface low pressure
centered over SW Wisconsin. Despite the mid 70`s to lower 80`s
forecast dewpoints will remain in the lower to mid 60`s. Wind shear
and helicity will be plenty enough to support severe
weather...however surface based CAPE will be extremely limited. With
the low CAPE/high shear setup all modes of severe weather will be
possible however straight line winds will be the main threat with
this system.

This storm system will push east of the state by Sunrise on
Wednesday. With the surface cold front becoming parallel to the
upper level flow it will struggle to completely clear the state and
temperatures are forecast to remain fairly warm on Wednesday and
Thursday. This stalled front will lift back to the north towards the
end of the week and bring another round of precipitation to the
region to end the long term. At this point, it appears this system
will be the exact opposite of the Tuesday night system.  This system
will have ample CAPE, but lacks wind energy. It is more likely that
this storm system will be an ample rain maker as once again the
frontal boundary will be parallel to the upper level pattern and be
a slow mover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Expect VFR flight category to begin the forecast period across all
terminals. By early Monday morning, the terminals of KHOT, KADF,
KLIT, KPBF, KLLQ will experience MVFR flight category with lowering
CIGS that will last until mid-day on Monday before lifting back to
VFR flight category. Expect surface wind gusts over the first few
hours of Sunday evening across all terminals in excess of 20 to 25
knots. Winds will then begin to lower Sunday night and even become
variable at some sites before becoming re-established on Monday late
morning with some surface wind gusts again between 20 to 25 knots
into Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  80  66  78 /   0   0  20  80
Camden AR         62  81  63  81 /   0   0  10  50
Harrison AR       61  82  64  77 /   0  10  40  70
Hot Springs AR    62  79  64  76 /   0  10  20  80
Little Rock   AR  64  81  67  81 /   0   0  10  70
Monticello AR     63  80  66  81 /   0   0   0  30
Mount Ida AR      62  79  63  75 /   0  10  20  80
Mountain Home AR  61  83  64  76 /   0  10  40  80
Newport AR        62  81  67  81 /   0   0  10  60
Pine Bluff AR     62  80  65  81 /   0   0  10  50
Russellville AR   62  81  65  77 /   0  10  20  80
Searcy AR         60  79  64  79 /   0   0  10  70
Stuttgart AR      63  79  66  80 /   0   0   0  60

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...74