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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171110
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Temperatures continue to warm today as flow aloft transitions more
zonal, but highs will be limited to the upper 80s/low 90s as a
shortwave trough increases cloud cover along and south of the I-20
corridor. This won`t be the case on Thursday, however, as the
departing trough and clearing skies give way to a thermal ridge
axis and warm downsloping winds in the afternoon with 850mb temps
reaching 26-28C. As the heat turns up over West Texas and SE New
Mexico, a strong cold front will be pushing down into the Texas
Panhandle as a broad upper trough moves across Canada. This front
looks to be knocking on our doorstep right around the end of peak
heating, and compressional warming ahead of the front may actually
push temperatures even higher. Have gone ahead and bumped up
temperatures to the mid to upper 90s for much of the region, and
some spots along the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande may even reach
triple digits. This will only be possible if the cold front holds
off until Thursday evening, but if it does, the Permian Basin may
see the warmest day of the year thus far!

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For those that are tired of the summer-like heat, relief is on the
way Thursday night! A strong cold front is progged to surge
southward into the region Thursday evening as a broad trough
translates eastward across the northern tier of the CONUS. This
front will be accompanied by a sharp northeasterly wind shift as
well as possible blowing dust lofted from fields across the South
Plains and Texas Panhandle. Increased moisture will result, not
just associated with the front, but also pooling of mid-level
moisture as flow aloft begins transitioning from quasizonal to
southwesterly. Lows early Friday morning will remain mild in spite
of the front, given the increase in clouds and moisture,
bottoming out in the 50s to lower 60s for most, though a few spots
across far northern zones may dip into the 40s. Cold advection
continues in earnest Friday, with highs potentially 20 to 30
degrees cooler for many than the highs we see on Thursday, ranging
from the 60s north to the 70s along the Pecos River and 80s and
90s confined to far southern zones.

In addition to sharply cooler temperatures, ascent associated with
the front and passing shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft will
bring the return of much-needed precipitation chances, ramping up
beginning Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the duration, and
currently, a disturbance Saturday looks to provide the best chance
for measurable precipitation. However, given the much cooler
temperatures, instability will largely remain elevated, mitigating
any significant severe weather threats. It`s still uncertain how
much rain will result, as amounts would be highly dependent on
convective versus non-convective precipitation, but any moisture
would be welcome. Persistent northeasterly to easterly surface
flow through the weekend along with the cloud cover and expected
precipitation will keep temperatures well below normal, with highs
ranging from the middle 50s to lower 70s for most Saturday, and
in the 60s and lower 70s Sunday. As mid-level ridging begins
developing to the west of the area late in the weekend,
precipitation chances will shift eastward, and increasing
thicknesses will yield the beginning of a warming trend early next
week. Highs Monday rebound to the 80s for many, and by Tuesday,
lower 90s return to portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.
After this weekend, the long term forecast is dry, though as the
ridge translates eastward and flow aloft returns to the southwest,
dryline showers and thunderstorms may return to eastern portions
of the area toward midweek. Stay tuned.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

No significant changes from previous TAF package. VFR with
increasing high clouds, especially for Texas terminals. Winds will
generally remain light this morning, with elevated/gusty winds at
the SE New Mexico terminals this afternoon. Winds will generally
be westerly/southwesterly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Winds continue to trend lighter, serving to be the primary
limiting factor when it comes to fire weather concerns across
Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Very dry conditions continue
today as temperatures rebound to around 5 to 15 degrees above
normal, and ERCs trend closer to or even above the 90th percentile
for much of the region. RHs this afternoon will plummet to the
single digits for all but portions of Terrell County, however
light winds will keep concerns limited to IA at best. The
exception will be across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains into
the Sacramento Foothills and the immediately adjacent plains,
where 20ft winds around 15 mph are possible, with intermittent
higher gusts in the mountain areas. Thus, given the critically dry
conditions, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for these areas
this afternoon. Recovery across western areas tonight remains poor
to fair at best, though moisture return across the east will
yield excellent recovery across the eastern Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos. While very dry conditions and well above normal
temperatures continue Thursday, winds will be light areawide,
likely mitigating the need for any fire weather products. A more
significant reprieve arrives Thursday night when a strong cold
front moves through the region, accompanied by much cooler, below
normal temperatures this weekend as well as wetting rain potential
Friday afternoon through Sunday. A warming and drying trend
returns early next week, though fire weather concerns will be
dependent upon how much rain locations receive this weekend.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               91  62  98  54 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 89  54  96  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   93  65  99  65 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton            90  59  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           80  57  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    87  53  92  50 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    84  49  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     89  61  97  55 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   89  61  97  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     92  55  98  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...88