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000
FXUS64 KMEG 120006 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
706 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

A welcomed pattern change will occur on Friday with dry and warm
conditions persisting through the weekend. Rain chances return on
Tuesday as the next storm system approaches the Mid-South. Wet
conditions will likely persist through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Persistent upper level ridging will overspread the Mid-South on
Friday, resulting in dry conditions through the weekend. In
addition, a warming trend will be evident as temperatures increase
to around 80 degrees by Sunday afternoon.

On Monday, guidance continues to depict a strong upper level low
trekking across the Central Plains. Local impacts will likely not
be felt until Tuesday, when the aforementioned low pulls towards
the Great Lakes Region. Several days of return flow will allow for
a moist airmass to be in place by Tuesday afternoon. At this
time, rain chances look to increase with thunderstorm development
possible. The Storm Prediction Center has included a portion of
the Mid-South in a Slight Risk for severe storm development on
Tuesday. However, most recent guidance depicts large discrepancies
in location of the instability axis on Tuesday. For example, the
GEFS places about a 30% chance of >1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in place
across the Mid-South through sunset Tuesday. On the contrary,
ECMWF ensemble has a 0% probability of >500 J/kg at this time.
Overall, the probability for severe weather development appears
relatively low (30%) on Tuesday due to favorable shear and
instability not overlapping.

Rain chances will persist through Thursday as a reinforcing front
slowly moves across the Mid-South

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Primarily a wind forecast, as a dry midcontinental airmass brings
VFR through the next 30 hours. Kept gusts in this evening for
MEM, with upstream pressure rises over MO.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB