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000
FXUS64 KMEG 131958
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
258 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Weather conditions will be excellent over the next few days as dry,
warm weather prevails with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Showers and thunderstorms will move into the forecast beginning
Tuesday as a large storm system begins to influence the Mid-South.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday with the
movement of this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

We have a nice day across the Mid-South with current temperatures in
the upper 70s to lower 80s with clear skies as high pressure
continues to dominate the region. As we move through the weekend,
the current ridge centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley, will
deamplify ahead of another ridge building in from the Plains by
Monday. This ridge movement will keep dry weather and above normal
temperatures in the 80s through early week.

A pattern shift will occur Tuesday as a deep upper level trough and
enclosed upper low ejects from the southwest over the northern
Plains early Tuesday morning. Out of ahead of this upper low, a
surface low pressure system with a trailing cold front will push
over the Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon. The pressure
gradient ahead of this front will tighten pretty significantly
resulting in sustained south winds 20-30 mph with gusts up to 50
mph. These quick winds will place areas mainly west and along the
Mississippi River along a warm conveyor belt as warm Gulf moisture
gets ushered in. In the upper levels, a strong jet also moves
over the Mid-South bringing divergence and added lift to the
region Tuesday afternoon. PWATs surge around 1.6-1.9", around the
99th percentile for this time of year. Thus, ample moisture will
be present Tuesday in support of possible severe weather.

Kinematics ahead of the aforementioned front continue to hint at
a high shear (50-70 kts), lower end CAPE (20-40% >500 J/kg)
environment. The greatest CAPE field looks to fall over the
ArkLaTex, though greatest CAPE values over our area look to move
over areas west of the Mississippi River. Bottom line, a
conditional threat of severe weather exists over areas along and
west of the Mississippi River Tuesday afternoon through evening.
We will continue to watch severe weather potential in coming
packages as we move closer to Tuesday.

This first system will be quick moving as the aforementioned
front moves past our area by Wednesday afternoon. A re-enforcing
cold front and attendant surface low look to traverse the region
Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. As a result, we are
keeping PoPs (25-40%) in the forecast Wednesday through Friday.
Cool air will follow this re-enforcing front decreasing our
temperatures from the upper 70s to mid 80s down to the 60s and 70s
heading into next weekend.

AEH

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. A low-level jet over
the Southern Plains will expand east into the Lower Mississippi
late tonight, resulting in the development of LLWS at JBR and MEM
as 2 kft winds increase to around 45 kts. S winds between 5-8 kts
will become light briefly this evening before increasing to 10-14
kts with occasionally higher gusts by Sunday morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH