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000
FXUS62 KMFL 201123
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
723 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Persistent ridging over the Gulf of Mexico will begin to erode
today as a broad mid-level trough moves across the southeastern
US. As this happens, a weakening "cool" front will move across the
Deep South and approach the Florida peninsula today, potentially
reaching central FL by Sunday evening. The main immediate impact
of this development will be a gradual wind shift from SE to S
across South FL, which will help maintain warm air advection and
moisture return over the area and thus result in another handful
of very warm days over the region. Temperatures this afternoon and
tomorrow could reach the low-mid 90s over the interior and
southwest FL. Areas near the coasts could benefit from sea breeze
processes and somewhat milder temperatures in the mid-upper 80s
each afternoon. A few brief showers could develop over the
interior as the breezes push in each afternoon, but kept PoPs
capped at 20% as the signal is still pretty weak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The aforementioned "cool" front will continue its trek along the
FL peninsula on Monday, potentially reaching South FL by
nightfall. The best dynamic support will most likely remain well
north of the area with the boundary reaching the area basically as
a frontolytic feature, which would support mostly scattered
showers to accompany this boundary. However, some model solutions
do show a subtle mid-level shortwave that could move over the
region during peak daytime heating along with the boundary, which
could support an isolated thunderstorm threat, mainly over the
Lake Okeechobee/Palm Beach county region. Models still show the
decaying front stalling out somewhere over the region and
lingering through mid week, and keeping slight chances of showers
across the region each day.

With increased moisture and warm advection over the area,
temperatures through the period will remain warm across the area,
with highs consistently reaching the mid to upper 80s along the
coasts and the lower 90s across the interior sections.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light
and variable winds this morning will increase out of the southeast
early this afternoon. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the west
southwest early this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail across all local waters
today as a surface high over the western Atlantic continues to
shift eastward. Winds will then begin to shift out of the south on
Sunday ahead of a frontal approach. A Gulf Breeze could develop
each afternoon across the resulting in more WSW winds over the
near-shore Gulf waters. Seas will generally remain 2 feet or less.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

A moderate rip current threat could be possible for Palm Beach
county beaches through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  72  87  72 /   0  10  10   0
West Kendall     88  69  88  68 /   0  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        87  71  87  71 /   0  10  10   0
Homestead        86  71  86  70 /   0  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  85  71  85  72 /   0   0  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  86  71  87  71 /   0   0  10   0
Pembroke Pines   87  71  87  71 /   0   0  10   0
West Palm Beach  87  70  88  68 /  10   0  10  10
Boca Raton       87  71  88  70 /   0   0  10   0
Naples           86  70  85  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CWC