875
FXUS62 KMFL 051154
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
754 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Minor tweaks this morning to raise temperatures a few degrees
based off the observed trends this morning. Otherwise no
additional major changes are anticipated through the morning. Have
a wonderful Sunday morning!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

South Florida remains under the influence of upper level high
pressure with a surface ridge displaced to the east or the peninsula.
This will keep generally easterly flow at the surface for today and
into early next week. Upper levels remain too dry for significant
convection, and the next two afternoons are likely to be a repeat
of what we saw on Saturday. A few showers will be possible across
eastern areas early in the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland,
with the focus of convection growing over the southwest portions of
the area during the evening hours. Rain chances will remain low
overall without much synoptic forcing and moisture, although scattered
coverage is expected across southwest portions of the area by the
evening hours today and on Monday.

Forecasted afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s to near 90
degrees across southwestern Florida with highs in the low to mid
80s across the eastern half of the area thanks to the persistent
onshore flow. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s
along the east coast while interior locations dip into the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Surface high pressure stays focused to the east in the Atlantic,
maintaining the light to moderate east to east-southeasterly
flow across the region through much of next week. 500 mb heights
begin to increase into mid to late week as upper level ridging
will build into the region from the west. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day next week with eastern areas more likely
to see any weak activity during the early afternoon hours
with the inland progression of the sea breeze. The east coast
breeze will continue to push further inland with slightly better
chances for isolated showers or storms across Southwest Florida
during the evening hours closer to sunset.

Overall rain chances will remain low through the week, but will
decrease even more as upper level ridging builds towards the end
of the week. High temperatures through the early portion of the
period will run in the low to mid 80s along the coasts with lower
90s likely for interior areas. By the middle to late portion of
the week, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s near the
coasts with mid to even upper 90s possible for interior areas. A
sobering reminder that another balmy South Florida summer is just
around the corner.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR through much of forecast period, except for bouts of sub-VFR
this afternoon at APF due to showers/storms. E/ESE wind around 10
kt with higher gusts. Gulf sea breeze may impact APF and other
nearby coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Breezy to gusty easterly winds with periods of enhancement,
especially across the Atlantic waters over the next several days.
Isolated to scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
each day, which could bring locally higher seas and gusty winds in and
around shower/thunderstorm activity. Seas will generally remain at 2 to
4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less across the Gulf waters.
During wind enhancements, conditions could reach Small Craft Exercise
Caution (SCEC) conditions.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk for rip
currents along the Atlantic beaches through the remainder of this
weekend. The risk may remain elevated early next week, especially
across the Palm Beach County beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            84  75  85  75 /  10  10  20  10
West Kendall     86  71  86  72 /  10  10  20  10
Opa-Locka        86  72  87  73 /  10  10  20  10
Homestead        85  74  85  74 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  83  74  83  75 /  10  10  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  84  74  84  74 /  10  10  20  10
Pembroke Pines   87  73  87  74 /  10  10  20  10
West Palm Beach  85  71  85  72 /  20   0  20  10
Boca Raton       86  73  85  73 /  20  10  20  10
Naples           89  71  89  72 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....Rizzuto
AVIATION...RAG