206
FXUS62 KMHX 050051
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
851 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A meandering cold front will linger over the area today before
retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across
the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to
unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions
are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and
humidity as ridging builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 830 PM Saturday...Last bit of showers/isolated tstms
lifting north of Martin Co early this evening as the western
portion of the quasi-stationary front inches northward. Focus
will turn to the coast for the rest of the evening as moisture
advection increases with low level flow becoming southerly. The
moisture plume is evident on radar and satellite imagery early
this evening stretching SSE from Core Banks. Guidance continues
to show precip chances increasing along a fairly narrow band
from eastern Carteret county northward along the inner banks
through the overnight, generally aligned along the remnant
eastern portion of the frontal boundary as well as an area of
favorable nocternal speed convergence. There is some descrepency
with where it will line up exactly however, with some of the
western most solutions approaching the hwy 17 corridor. While
most of the shower activity overnight will generally be light,
there could be some spots that receive a descent amount of QPF,
esp. in areas where training occurs and could see a narrow band
of 1-1.5"+ as depicted by some hi-res models.

Previous discussion...Isolated showers and thunderstorms across
the region have been ongoing over the past few hours, which
have been supported by a stalled front across central NC. With
the upper ridge sliding offshore and the stalled front moving
offshore, low- level flow will become south-southeasterly and
generate stronger moisture advection. The CAMs are showing
increased shower and thunderstorm activity developing east of
HWY 17 and west of the OBX around midnight. With the increased
moisture, PWATs will go from around 1" to 1.5"+. 500-900 J/kg of
MUCAPE is suffificent to support some thunderstorms but shear
is lacking, so the overnight severe threat is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Shower and thunderstorm activity will
increase from the west tomorrow afternoon with the support of a
passing shortwave and the stationary boundary lifting north as a
cold front. Chance PoPs cover the area through the morning with
a period of likelys in the afternoon for the far western edge
of the CWA. CAPE will be sufficient but shear will be lacking
once again, so thunderstorms are possible but the severe threat
is low. With an increase in cloud cover and PoPs, high temps
have been lowered by a couple of degrees. The coastal plain is
expected to reach nearly 80 while the beaches stay in the low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As 315 AM Sat...Unsettled weather will continue for the first
half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast
and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier
conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in
heat and humidity.

Sunday through Tuesday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday and
then SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore
through early next week. Despite this, a combination of weak
troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly
unsettled conditions through Tuesday. Showers and convection
will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain
the most with Monday and Tuesday likely having the greatest
coverage. Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal
with highs likely in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday,
and a bit warmer Tuesday...in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday through Friday...Drier conditions are expected mid
week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast.
However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued
southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will
afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and
the low to mid 80s closer to the coast.

By late Thursday a potentially strong frontal system will move
towards the East Coast and more unsettled conditions are
expected through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday night/...
As of 8 PM Saturday...Pred VFR conditions across rtes expected
through this evening. Cigs expected to lower to MVFR across NW
sections late tonight (around 06-08z) which could impact PGV and
ISO. In addition, a band of showers is expected to lift north
across eastern rtes late this evening through the overnight
with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely. Some of the showers
could be locally heavy bring occasional IFR/LIFR conditions.
Generally expect this line to remain east of the TAF sites, but
may approach EWN late tonight. With plenty of low level
moisture in place, could see MVFR cigs linger through Sunday
morning as LCL`s rise with daytime heating. Pred VFR expected
Sunday afternoon but scattered showers and thunderstorms will
bring periods of sub-VFR conditions with greatest chances
occuring across the western coastal plain.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through mid next week, however increasingly unsettled
conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each
afternoon/evening. Dry and mostly clear conditions expected by
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Saturday...Seas will be 2-4 ft and SE winds at 10-15
kt will become more southerly tomorrow. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible through the period but
the severe threat is low.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Decent boating conditions are expected this
weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next
week.

Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts, and
continue to veer to the SW by Monday at 10-15 kts. SW winds will
then increase to 15-20 kts Monday night through Wednesday and
could occasionally gust to 25 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4
ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SGK/MS
AVIATION...SK/SGK/OJC
MARINE...SGK/OJC