490
FXUS64 KMOB 050503
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1203 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Patchy to areas of fog and very low ceilings will likely develop
again late tonight into early morning with reductions to LIFR to
VLIFR possible across much of our region. VFR conditions will
return by mid-morning. /13

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A general zonal flow pattern aloft prevails across the region this
afternoon. Weak shortwave perturbations within this flow will
translate over the area this afternoon while a seabreeze circulation
advances northward across our inland zones. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop over inland areas this
afternoon through early this evening in association with this
features. Will maintain low POPs (20-40%) mainly north of the I-10
corridor this afternoon, with convection gradually dwindling by
around 9-10 PM this evening. Shortwave ridging aloft builds overhead
tonight into early Sunday morning. Dry conditions are anticipated
tonight, but conditions will become favorable for the development of
patchy to areas of fog, some of which could become locally dense
late tonight into early Sunday morning. The mid level flow pattern
will transition more southwesterly by Sunday afternoon as shortwave
ridging aloft shifts to our east and the next trough translates over
the Plains states. The mid level flow becomes somewhat diffluent
over interior portions of southeast MS and southwest AL which favors
the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
by Sunday afternoon. Lows tonight are forecast to range in the mid
to upper 60s over inland locations and in the upper 60s to lower 70s
along the coast. Highs on Sunday once again range in the mid 80s to
near 90 degrees inland and in the lower to mid 80s along the
immediate coast and beaches. The rip current risk remains MODERATE
along area beaches through the remainder of the weekend. /21

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Another chance for isolated showers and storms will be possible
on Monday afternoon over interior portions of the area as another
weak shortwave feature moves over the area. Upper level ridging
will then build in on Tuesday and Wednesday with a more zonal
pattern returning by the end of the week. With the subsidence in
place, we expect mostly dry conditions through at least Wednesday.
The next chance for isolated convection returns for inland areas
on Thursday afternoon as upper flow becomes more zonal and a cold
front begins to approach from the west. Persistent onshore flow
through the period will result in increased moisture later in the
week and storm coverage is expected to increase to around 20-40%
as the cold front pushes into the area Friday and into Friday
night. The front should move east across our area by early
Saturday morning with dry conditions likely returning by Saturday
afternoon.

Temperatures will gradually warm through mid week as the upper
ridging builds into the Southeast. Highs are expected to reach
into the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday and Thursday. Low
temperatures will also linger in the upper 60s to 70s both
Wednesday and Thursday nights. Relatively cooler temperatures are
anticipated Friday given the increased rain chances and cloud
cover with notably cooler temperatures expected on Saturday in
the wake of the frontal passage. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A light onshore flow will persist through the weekend and then
slowly increase to moderate by the middle of next week. Slightly
higher winds are expected during the afternoon hours near the coast
in association with an enhanced sea breeze circulation. Seas
offshore will gradually increase to around 3 feet by the early to
middle part of the week. 96/21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  85  70  86  72  87  73  88 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   70  83  72  83  73  84  75  85 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0  10
Destin      71  81  72  82  74  83  75  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   65  88  66  89  68  91  70  91 /  10  20   0  10   0  10   0  20
Waynesboro  65  87  67  90  69  91  71  92 /  10  20   0  10   0  10  10  20
Camden      65  86  65  89  68  90  70  90 /  20  20   0  10   0  10   0  30
Crestview   64  88  65  87  67  88  69  89 /   0  10   0  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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