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000
FXUS64 KMOB 182101
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Weak shortwave ridging embedded within zonal flow aloft continues
to extend across the north central Gulf Coast region this
afternoon. A surface ridge of high pressure also continues to
nose westward across the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon. The combination of weak ridging aloft and
moist southerly surface flow is allowing for warm and humid
conditions across our region. Skies remain mostly cloudy this
afternoon with abundant mid/upper level moisture spreading
overhead. A few lower level cloud decks are also persisting along
the coast.

The main weather impact of concern tonight will be the potential
for patchy to areas of fog development, especially after midnight
as light S/SW flow continues to bring rich low level moisture with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees into the area,
while mid/upper level decks potentially decrease in coverage
somewhat late. SREF probabilities of visibility less than a mile
continue to increase, with some of the CAMs showing decent
coverage of fog, some potentially locally dense, across central
and southern portions of the forecast area. We have mention of
patchy to areas of fog overnight into early Friday morning and
will let later shifts assess visibility trends for possible
advisory issuance. Fog should lift by 9 AM or so with another
warm and humid day expected on Friday. A surface cold front should
move into central portions of MS and into northwest AL by Friday
afternoon before potentially entering or stalling over our far
northern zones Friday night. Weak shortwave impulses embedded
within zonal flow aloft may provide enough ascent to bring a small
chance of light rain showers or possibly a thunderstorm over our
far northern CWA Friday afternoon and evening ahead of this
feature. Another round of patchy to areas of fog development will
be possible again across much of our region Friday night. The
surface boundary may push a little further south into interior
portions of our area on Saturday. Increased deep layer moisture
and ascent in association with a series of shortwave impulses
should allow for more scattered coverage of showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms, especially over interior areas north of I-10 on
Saturday. Additional showers and storms may impact locations
along and west of I-65 ahead of the next shortwave trough late
Saturday night.

Lows tonight and Friday night should generally range in the lower
to mid 60s over inland communities and in the mid 60s to near 70
degrees along the immediate coast. Highs Friday will be quite warm
in the mid to upper 80s over interior locations and in the upper
70s to lower 80s along the coast. Highs Saturday may trend
slightly cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows by Saturday
night will fall into the 50s over interior southeast MS/southwest
AL behind the front, and trend a little warmer in the lower to mid
60s near the coast.

A MODERATE rip current risk continues through Friday along area
beaches and drops to LOW this weekend. /21

&&

.EXTENDED TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal flow will quickly become northwesterly in the wake
of the subtle shortwave that will bring us rain during the day
Sunday. Sunday will be the only chance for rain as a very weak and
subtle subtropical impulse will move across the westerly flow. This
will lead to a rather small window of ascent over the area along the
slowly sagging surface boundary draped across the area. Expect
overrunning rain and maybe some thunder across the area Sunday
morning into the early afternoon. The surface cold front will move
offshore leading to drier conditions returning. Dry northwesterly
flow will temporarily work its way into the area monday leading to a
cooler and drier forecast through the middle of the week. Behind the
front temperatures will drop into the 70s for highs and 40s for lows
before steadily increasing back into the 80s for highs and 60s for
lows by Thursday. BB/03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

No significant marine impacts through the weekend as light to
occasionally moderate onshore flow continues. Locally higher winds
and seas will be possible near thunderstorms Sunday. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  84  66  84  61  71  48  75 /  10   0   0  20  20  70  10   0
Pensacola   67  81  66  81  65  75  53  76 /  10   0   0  10  10  60  20   0
Destin      67  78  67  79  66  75  56  75 /  10   0   0  10  10  60  20   0
Evergreen   63  86  63  84  58  71  46  75 /  10   0   0  30  20  70  10   0
Waynesboro  65  87  63  80  53  64  44  74 /  20   0   0  40  40  80  10   0
Camden      63  85  62  80  53  65  45  72 /  20  20  10  40  40  70  10   0
Crestview   63  86  62  86  61  77  48  77 /  10   0   0  20  10  60  20   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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