000
FXUS63 KMPX 252328
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
628 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Friday`s system brings widespread rain and gusty winds to the
  region. The heaviest rain is expected Friday afternoon into
  Friday night.

- There is a Marginal severe threat for overnight convection
  along the I-90 corridor in southern MN. Hail would be the
  primary concern.

- A break in the active weather is anticipated Saturday, with another
  strong system expected to bring additional widespread rain on
  Sunday.

- A more Summer-like warmth expected to start May, with an
  active weather pattern expected across the central CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... Temperatures have warmed into the 60s and
70s across the region early this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are
accompanied by gusty winds out of the south-southeast. A few
sporadic gusts have been up to 40mph, particularly across
portions of western Minnesota. We`ll see an increase in mid-high
level cloud cover this afternoon and evening as our first of
two weekend systems takes shape in the Plains. RH values have
largely stayed in the 30 to 35% range which has helped limit
harsher fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Tonight, showers will begin to spread across the area from west to
east. Moisture advection will ramp up ahead of this and should limit
our overnight low temperatures from falling much below 45 degrees.
Friday will not be a complete wash out, but odds are the combination
of gusty winds and periods of rain should limit any outdoor
activities. Most locations should see a half inch to an inch of rain
by Saturday morning with a few localized areas with heavier amounts
due to convection. A few storms could turn severe along I-90 Friday
evening and Friday night as MUCAPE values of 500-1000j/kg + move
through along a frontal boundary. The sfc low track to our south
will really limit what severe potential could be had yet colder
temperatures aloft & elevated instability can pose a non zero hail
threat. Saturday continues to be the best "weather day" of the
weekend as we`ll be between systems. Temperatures in the 70s appear
likely with dew points remaining on the higher end due to Friday`s
rainfall + ongoing warm air advection ahead of Sunday`s system.

Sunday`s forecast remains interesting as the low track is a bit
further north than Friday`s and that should put more of the region
into the warm sector and thus a severe threat. Latest 12z guidance
has possibly trended a touch further south with the track, but
southern Minnesota will still need to monitor the potential Sunday
afternoon. If we`re able to see meaningful instability build into
our region then we`ll likely see severe potential develop. Shear
will be favorable and timing isn`t awful. On top of potential severe
another round of widespread rain will move through. An additional
half inch to inch falls with total amounts from both systems between
1 to 2" with locally higher amounts where convection tracks. We`ll
dry out on Monday with a brief "cool down".

Tuesday through Thursday... This period remains unsettled with model
spread suggesting the potential for additional precipitation mid-
week. There is a reasonable signal for another shortwave to move
through but timing differences mean PoPs are smoothed out Tuesday
through Thursday. ECMWF would suggest better chances for precip and
thunder Thursday and Friday ahead of a SW CONUS trough.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

High clouds and breezy southeasterly winds will continue this
evening into tonight. Friday morning will see lowering ceilings
as a line of rain showers move across Minnesota and Wisconsin.
See individual TAFs for forecast timing. Should be a lighter
rain for most with MVFR, but there could be some embedded
heavier showers that could approach IFR. Winds will remain
breezy from the southeast on Friday. There should be a rain free
period Friday afternoon before chances for thunderstorms develop
Friday evening. Most TAFs have little mention of this since the
start time for these storms would be at the end of this TAF
period for all sites, but MSP and MKT.

KMSP... Tonight will match up with what we saw during the day
today, but will see lowering although still VFR ceilings. Friday
morning rain showers will arrive with MVFR forecast. VFR
visibility, but MVFR ceilings in the afternoon. Followed by a
chance for the TSRA in the evening where IFR could occur. Kept
the TSRA as a PROB30 since coverage of the storms remains
uncertain and the terminal area could still avoid being
impacted.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. -SHRA likely early and overnight. Chc IFR/TS
      overnight. Wind SW 15G30 kts becoming NW.
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA, chance IFR/TS. Wind NE 10-15G25 kts.
MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC