Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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401 FXUS63 KMQT 151020 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 620 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry weather continues today ahead of rain chances returning tonight. - Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms return Thursday and continue into Friday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected late this weekend and again by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Sprawling high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will ensure one more pleasant, dry, and sunny spring day. Temperatures are starting off quite chilly, with most of the area hovering in the lower to mid 30s. However, some pockets of even cooler temperatures are to be found across the higher terrain of Marquette and Baraga counties. There, temperatures have dropped into the 20s! Heading into the daytime hours, temperatures recover nicely, peaking well into the 60s and even lower 70s across most of the interior UP. Temperatures come in cooler across the northern UP, especially closer to Superior, where we may struggle even to crack the mid 50s. Meanwhile, as mixing deepens, dewpoints should drop again into the afternoon hours with values in the upper 20s expected across much of the interior UP. This will yield RH in the lower 20s across most of the UP. Light easterly winds should mitigate fire weather concerns, but will note that a potential for lake breeze development exists off of both Superior and Lake Michigan, which could result in a quick shift in wind direction. Tonight, expect an increase in clouds as a shortwave currently over the Plains begins to swing into the Upper Midwest. Weak WAA ahead of this will touch off our next chance for rain showers across the far western UP after midnight, but even this timing may be ambitious with plenty of dry air to overcome. Otherwise, expect temperatures to range in the 30s across most of the area, apart from the far western UP. There, cloudy skies and warmer air working in should help to keep temperatures in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 The dry weather comes to an end Thursday as a low pressure moves into western Lake Superior throughout the day. As the shortwave low moves in, expect showers and possibly (15% chance) a few embedded thunderstorms to move their way eastward throughout the daylight hours. In addition, we could see some convection fire back up over the western U.P. during the afternoon hours as the cold front of the low begins to move into the west. With CAPE being low and cloud cover keeping low-level lapse rates much to be desired, no severe weather is expected Thursday into Thursday night. As the cold front of the shortwave low pushes through the rest of the U.P. Thursday night, expect the rainfall to generally end from west to east behind the front`s passage, save for maybe some isolated light rain showers. Overall, don`t expect much in the way of rainfall from this shortwave; expect generally around a tenth of an inch across most of the area, with some spots seeing closer to a quarter to maybe locally half an inch, while others only see a trace. This will be because of the convective nature of the precipitation; places that see the center of convective cells will likely receive more rainfall, whereas those who don`t will likely see less. As weak high pressure ridging sets back up over Lake Superior Friday, drier conditions move across the area, with the last of the rain showers ending in the far east. The drier conditions remain across the U.P. until late Saturday afternoon at the earliest as high pressure ridging tries to stubbornly hold on over Lake Superior. While there is more uncertainty in the rest of the extended forecast, the general story remains fairly the same among the different model suites: a dry warm front moves over the U.P. Friday night into Saturday, followed by a cold front Saturday afternoon through Saturday night/Sunday. The warmest temperatures of the extended period are expected Saturday, with highs getting into the 80s over some of the interior west spots. Expect the rainfall with the passage of the cold front; while rainfall amounts look to be fairly light according to the LREF, we will likely (60-70% chance) generally see a tenth or two of liquid across the area before the rainfall ends. Behind the cold front, expect a reprieve from the rainfall as high pressure ridging moves back over the area yet again Sunday/Monday. The dry weather looks to continue until the middle of next week when a low pressure lifting off of the Colorado Rockies heads to the Great Lakes region and brings additional rainfall to the area. That being said, there is some more doubt in this part of the forecast as the most recent run of the European model has trended the low too far to the south to affect us. Looking at the end of the extended period and beyond, it appears that the unsettled weather pattern continues through to the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period. Winds will shift from the northeast to the southeast, but will remain light. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Light winds of 20 knots or less this morning give way to northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots over the far western lake this afternoon as a low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains. The higher winds continue until late tonight due to the pressure gradient between the approaching low and the high pressure over Lake Superior weakening (the high begins leaving the lake). Light winds of generally 20 knots or less remain over the lake as stable conditions continue through the weekend into next week. That being said, as a cold front moves through Saturday into Sunday, we could (15% chance) see some thunderstorms traverse the lake from west to east with the front. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...TAP