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000
FXUS63 KOAX 181101
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
601 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will exit to the east by this
  afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures start today and continue through the
  weekend, with  morning lows dropping below freezing in many
  areas Friday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings.

- Another chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday, with
  another chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

An MCS has developed along a warm front south of our area, which
has cut off much of our severe potential for this morning. We
continue to see two areas of shower activity, one across
southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, and another covering much
of northeast Nebraska. The band of frontogenetically forced
shower activity stretching from northeast Nebraska southwestward
across the state will slowly merge with the precip to the south,
spreading showers and weak thunderstorms across our entire area
later this morning. Shower activity will slowly decrease through
late morning, exiting to the east by this afternoon.

Today starts a stretch of cooler than normal temperatures with
highs only in the 50s. A broad upper-level trough sinking down
out of Canada brings this cooler air mass down into the Northern
Plains, which remains locked in place through the weekend. While
we remain dry, areas out in western Nebraska will likely see
some snow this weekend. These cooler temperatures mean morning
lows Friday through Sunday will likely drop to around or below
freezing across much of our area. Those with sensitive plants
that have already started sprouting will likely need to take
protective actions. We`ve started our frost/freeze program, so
you may see us issue frost/freeze products for this weekend.

Saturday night into Sunday we see the trough get shoved off to
the east allowing for a deeper shortwave trough to drop down
into the Central Plains. This will likely bring stronger storms
to the Southern states. A second system follows on Monday, this
one pulling moisture northward out of the Gulf of Mexico which
will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to our area. An
active pattern appears to follow going into midweek with
additional chances for showers and thunderstorms

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Widespread drizzle/light rain is expected to last through the
morning hours. Rain should end by 17Z. MVFR clouds should also
move out of the region by this afternoon. Isolate brief pockets
of IFR ceilings are possible before 16Z, but coverage and
confidence is not enough to include in TAFs.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Darrah