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000
FXUS63 KOAX 231014
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
514 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to windy again today with areas of high fire danger
  developing.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
  Thursday through the weekend, potentially leading to localized
  flooding. Some severe weather is also possible with the
  greatest threat being Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Today:

Earlier strong storms have weakened or shifted to the southeast
of the area with widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms lingering through daybreak across portions of
southeast NE and southwest IA. A vorticity lobe currently over
the western Dakotas is forecast to pivot southeast through the
region later this morning. Subsidence on the backside of that
feature will support decreasing clouds with downward momentum
transfer yielding breezy to windy conditions again today with
northwest winds gusting up to 30 to 35 mph. The strong winds
combined with minimum relative humidity values falling to 20 to
25 percent will result in pockets of high fire danger this
afternoon. High temperatures today will be cooler than those on
Monday with readings into the mid 60s to lower 70s.


Wednesday:

Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into central Plains
Wednesday morning will shift east as a lee trough deepens along
the High Plains. So, we will see a break from the recent strong
winds with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.


Thursday through Friday night:

The 00z global ensembles are in good agreement in suggesting
that a vigorous shortwave trough will progress through the
southern Rockies Thursday before turning northeast and evolving
into a closed midlevel circulation over the central High Plains
Friday morning. That low is then forecast to track more slowly
across NE on Friday before weakening over the eastern Dakotas
and western MN Friday night. In the low levels, an associated
surface low initially over eastern CO Thursday evening will
develop into central NE by Friday afternoon before eventually
reaching central or southern MN by Saturday morning. In response
to those developments, a low-level jet (LLJ) will strengthen
across the central and southern Plains with various NAEFS
moisture and moisture transport parameters indicating values
nearing the top of the distribution across the mid-MO Valley
Thursday night into Friday.

Air mass destabilization associated with the heat and moisture
fluxes along the LLJ will align with a strengthening low-level
warm advection regime along that same feature to support
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances from north-to-south
on Thursday. By Thursday night, continued moistening/
destabilization coupled with increased forcing for ascent will
lead to widespread thunderstorm development across the region
with an increased risk for localized flooding. The greatest
severe weather threat is expected to remain to the southwest of
our area Thursday afternoon and evening, in closer proximity to
the midlevel wave and surface low where stronger instability is
forecast. Nonetheless, isolated occurrences of hail and/or
strong winds appear possible across our area Thursday night.

The severe weather threat Friday will be dictated by the
ability of the atmosphere to destabilize in the wake of early-
day showers and storms, and the specific track of the surface
low and any associated boundaries. However, the overall synoptic
pattern will be supportive of severe weather during the
afternoon and evening hours with all hazards possible. Localized
flooding will also remain a concern.

Highs on Thursday are expected to be in the 60s to low 70s with
readings in the 70s on Friday.


Saturday and Sunday:

The ensembles remain in fairly good agreement in depicting the
next significant shortwave trough moving into the central and
southern High Plains Saturday with that feature lifting
northeast through lower elevations of the Great Plains on
Sunday. In the low levels, it appears that a surface front will
be stalled across the mid-MO Valley Saturday with a surface low
propagating northeast along that boundary through our area
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Under that scenario, it
appears that dry conditions will exist Saturday morning with
increasing thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon, and moreso
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Similar to the Thursday night system, the strongest forcing for
ascent overspreading our region will occur during the overnight
hours, which would tend to lower the ceiling on the overall
severe weather threat. That being said, some severe weather
and flooding potential will exist Saturday night, mainly over
southeast NE and southwest IA, in closer proximity to the
surface boundary.

Current model data suggest that showers and thunderstorms will
linger into Sunday with the better severe-weather potential
materializing to our east.

Highs on Saturday will be a function of clouds and exact frontal
location with readings ranging from 60s in northeast NE to
potentially lower 80s in parts of southeast NE. Readings are
forecast to be mainly in the 60s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Northwesterly winds will increase in speed this morning with
gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected by 14-15Z and continuing into
the afternoon. Winds will remain northwesterly and calm under
12 kts by 00-02Z this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Wood