082
FXUS64 KOHX 280712
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

An upper level ridge and surface high are sitting off to our east
and will continue to influence our weather today. This will bring
a nice day with highs once again reaching the mid 80s. The
pressure gradient will remain elevated over the area bringing
breezy winds once again but they will not be as strong as
Saturday, gusts up to 25 mph can be expected mid-morning into the
afternoon.

Upper level trough and surface low will push into the Great Lakes
early Monday pushing a cold front into the western part of the
state. A short wave will track out of the southern Plains Monday
morning/afternoon and this will weak and slow the cold front
down. We should start to see showers and thunderstorms become more
widespread along the front in the afternoon and evening across our
area. Modest amounts of CAPE up to 700 j/kg will build in Monday
but soundings show poor lapse rates and bulk shear will be
lacking. This will keep the severe risk low with thunderstorms.
PWATs will be quite high pushing up 1.50", this could result in
some heavy rain with any thunderstorms. Flooding is not expected.
Highs Monday will make it into the mid 80s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The front and short wave will slowly make their way through the
area Monday night into Tuesday. This will keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for the morning with them lingering
over the Plateau into the afternoon. CAPE will fall off overnight
but still should be sufficient enough for some thunderstorms and
CAPE will increase into Tuesday afternoon into eastern areas but
soundings look similar to Monday and severe weather is not
expected.

The front and short wave will clear the area by Tuesday evening
with upper level ridging building in. Instability will remain over
the area, we should remain capped enough to stay dry on Wednesday
but a few afternoon popup storms can`t be ruled out on Thursday
afternoon. Strong thunderstorms are unlikely.

Ensembles continue to struggle with the setup late week into the
weekend. The main uncertainty it with trough placement and timing
over the Great Lakes that will push a cold front into our area.
The front timing will likely be in the Friday to Saturday range
and will bring shower and thunderstorm chances with it.

Temperatures under the ridge mid-week will be quite warm pushing
into the mid to upper 80s. The NBM actually give Nashville a
50-65% chance of seeing 90 or higher Wednesday/Thursday, our
first 90 of the year may not be out of the question. We should see
some cooling late week into the weekend but with the uncertainty
in the pattern the NBM is showing a wide spread in possible highs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Southerly winds up to 11
knots overnight increasing after 13z to 10 to 16 knots gusting up
to 24 knots. Breezy winds diminish after 00z. Periods of high
level clouds with mid-level clouds developing tomorrow morning
into the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  64  83  64 /   0   0  90  90
Clarksville    84  64  79  61 /   0  10  80  90
Crossville     77  58  78  59 /   0   0  30  80
Columbia       84  64  82  62 /   0   0  90  90
Cookeville     80  62  81  61 /   0   0  50  90
Jamestown      80  59  80  59 /   0   0  40  80
Lawrenceburg   82  63  81  62 /   0   0  80  90
Murfreesboro   84  64  83  62 /   0   0  80  90
Waverly        84  66  79  61 /   0  10  80  80

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Mueller