601
FXUS64 KOHX 030652
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
152 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Scattered showers are ongoing across the area thanks to a
weakening shortwave to our west. That wave will slowly move
through the area this morning and lift northeast of the plateau by
lunchtime. More scattered showers and storms will develop this
afternoon as another disturbance approaches. MLCAPE values this
afternoon will be 1000-1500 J/kg but shear will be weak. While a
gusty storm can`t be ruled out, severe storms are not expected.
There will likely be a lull in the action tonight into Saturday
morning as we are in between waves and we lose the diurnal
heating. More scattered showers and storms will develop Saturday
afternoon.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The upper air pattern will remain active in the extended forecast
as the quasi-zonal flow brings weak disturbance after weak
disturbance. The scattered showers and storms from Saturday will
continue into Saturday night before we catch a break Sunday
morning and afternoon. Another wave will approach Sunday evening
with more showers and storms overnight. That wave will linger into
Monday. Some temporary upper ridging may try to build into the
area on Tuesday which could lower the rain chances, but it will be
short-lived as the quasi-zonal/southwesterly flow reestablishes
itself midweek. Overnight temperatures through the forecast will
be mild thanks to dew points in the 60s and extensive cloud
cover. Daily highs will depend on the coverage of showers and
storms each day but generally highs will be in the mid 70s to mid
80s.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Already we are beginning to see scattered light showers develop
across Middle Tennessee as a surface trough approaches the mid
state from the west. For now, conditions at all terminals are VFR,
but not for much longer. During the next several hours, showers
will become more prevalent and ceilings will lower to MVFR and
will remain there for much of the morning. Expect ceilings to
improve somewhat during the afternoon as we experience some
surface heating and boundary layer mixing, but rain chances will
stay with us. There will be some instability in place, so we do
expect a few thunderstorms to develop mainly during the
afternoon, but they will be scattered in nature and not prevalent
enough to warrant mention in the TAFs just yet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      80  66  81  65 /  80  70  40  40
Clarksville    78  63  81  64 /  90  40  30  40
Crossville     74  61  74  60 /  80  70  60  50
Columbia       80  64  80  63 /  80  70  40  40
Cookeville     76  63  76  62 /  80  70  60  50
Jamestown      75  61  75  60 /  80  70  70  50
Lawrenceburg   80  64  79  63 /  80  70  40  40
Murfreesboro   80  64  80  63 /  90  70  40  40
Waverly        79  63  79  64 /  80  60  40  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Rose