Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 281813
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
213 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure develops along the Carolina coast today, then
tracks up the Atlantic and east of the region on Friday. The low
reaches the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. High pressure
briefly returns Sunday before another low pressure system
impacts the region Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to
temperature and dew points to reflect the most recent
observations.

Periods of rain expected through the day. Deep lift expected with
the jet in a favorable position. Heaviest rain will be for the
central and eastern portions of the CWA based on the trajectory
of the moisture plume on water vapor and the modeling which was
in good agreement.

A coastal low off of North Carolina is modeled to gradually
deepen through the day, dropping about 10-15 mb by 6Z Fri. The
low will begin to get better organized by 12Z Fri as the
northern stream trough fuels development, but at this point the
low should be E of the benchmark.

Used NBM pops for the timing of the back edge of the rain
tonight. If the track and timing holds, W of the Hudson would
be dry by midnight. The rain hangs on a little longer eastern
zones, particularly the Twin Forks, but there is little evidence
in the 00Z runs of significant wraparound pcpn with the low, at
least for our CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The low deepens significantly on Fri as it tracks towards the
Maritimes. Deep mixing on nwly flow will produce a windy day.
Although not extreme, there could be some gusts to around 35-40
mph with winds in the 25-35kt range thru h85. Some high based cu
is modeled in both the NAM and GFS due to steep low and mid lvl
lapse rates.

Breezy near the coasts Fri ngt as the flow aloft strengthens,
but the cooling bl will be a limiting factor. Temps in the 30s
per the NBM which was used.

Dry to start on Sat then there is a chance for some light rain
by late aftn and Sat ngt. There is still some uncertainty as the
clipper type low is too far S in the GFS to produce pcpn. The
ECMWF and NAM are the wetter solns. Pops about 20 percent for
this event attm. The NBM was followed for temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term period. Zonal flow
become reestablished Sunday night and yet another upper trough
and surface frontal system will be quickly approaching for
Monday. Initially, a warm front will move toward the area
Monday, and then the associated low will move slowly eastward
into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. With near seasonal
temperatures through much of the extended period, except
slightly above for Saturday and Sunday, all liquid precipitation
is expected. And NBM temperatures looked reasonable through the
extended and were used.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front eventually gives way to low pressure offshore
moving northeast during the TAF period.

Rain will linger across most of the terminals through this
afternoon into the evening. Rain appears to just be in the
vicinity of KSWF so mainly dry conditions anticipated there.
For the rest of the terminals, the rain will taper off late
tonight from west to east. KGON could have rain linger on into
Friday morning.

MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue through the rest of this
afternoon with much of the IFR outside of NYC terminals. Towards
early evening, expecting mainly MVFR for NYC terminals and to
the north and west. To the east of NYC terminals, mainly IFR
this evening, improving to MVFR overnight. Overnight,
eventual improvement to VFR expected for all terminals except
KGON where MVFR will still be likely going into early Friday.

Winds will be northerly near 10 kt this afternoon. KGON winds will
stay more variable direction with speeds near 5 kts until late
this afternoon. Tonight into Friday, winds will be NW. The wind
speed increases to 10-15 kt this evening, and then 15-20 kt
overnight into Friday. Gusts develop this evening to near 20 kt
and then mainly in the 25-30 kt range overnight into Friday.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Category could fluctuate between MVFR and IFR before 00Z. Gusts
to 20 kt could develop 1-3 hours earlier than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR during the day. Chance of showers and MVFR
at night, possibly mixed with snow for KSWF. W-NW wind gusts
20-25 kt day. Gusts diminish at night.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into evening.

Monday: MVFR possible with a chance of showers.

Tuesday: Rain likely with MVFR or lower conditions. E wind gusts
15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A sca remains in effect for the cntrl and ern ocean today for 5
ft seas. Wind will otherwise be lgt, but pick up tngt on all
waters as low pres develops. A sca for the protected waters and
a gale watch for the ocean remain in effect for tngt. Winds were
too mrgnl to convert the watch to a warning attm.

For Fri into Sat, solid sca cond expected. There is a chc for
gales Fri and Fri ngt, but it is too mrgnl attm to go with a
watch.

A light flow is expected Sunday through Monday as high pressure
moves through the forecast waters and conditions remain below
advisory levels across the forecast waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Up to 1 inch if additional rainfall is expected for the eastern
CWA. No hydrologic impacts are expected with the additional
rainfall.

No hydrologic impacts are anticipated into the middle
of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.
     Gale Watch from 6 PM EDT this evening through late tonight for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/MW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC


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